INE confirms that house price growth will slow to 7.6% in the third quarter

The index of house prices (IPHab) rose 7.6% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous quarter and the smallest increase since the first quarter of 2021, it said in a report published Tuesday by INE.

According to the National Institute of Statistics (INE), from July to September prices for existing homes grew more rapidly compared to new homes: 8.1% and 5.8% respectively.

Overall, compared to the second quarter, IPHA increased by 1.8% (3.1% in the previous quarter), while the increase in prices for new housing (2.0%) exceeded the increase in prices for existing housing (1.8%).

According to the statistics institute, 34,256 houses were sold in the third quarter for a total of 7,100 million euros, representing a decrease of 18.9% and 12.2% respectively compared to the same period in 2022.

Of the total transactions, 26,644 (77.8% of the total) were for existing homes, representing an annual rate of change of -23.1%.

New housing saw a 0.2% increase in transactions to 7,612 units.

Overall, housing transactions grew by 1.9% between the second and third quarters of 2023 (-2.5% in the previous quarter), with this growth only recorded in the new housing category (11.5%), amounting to 0.6 %. % reduction in existing housing.

Regarding the value of the houses sold, it amounted to approximately 7,100 million euros, of which 4,900 million euros were for existing houses (70.0% of the total) and 2,100 million euros for new houses.

Compared to the same period in 2022, these values ​​represent a 12.2% and 19.2% decrease in total and existing home values, respectively, and a 10.3% increase in new home values.

Compared to the previous quarter, the value of homes sold in the third quarter of 2023 increased by 2.4% (0.7% in the second quarter of 2023). By category, there was an increase in the value of transactions with new housing (10.5%) and a decrease with existing housing (-0.7%).

From July to September, the institutional “family” sector purchased 29,635 houses (86.5% of the total) for a total of €6 billion (84.7% of the total).

Home sales to families fell 19.1% from the same period in 2022 and increased 3.1% from the previous quarter.

In terms of value, the €6 billion worth of transactions carried out by households resulted in an annual change of -13.7% (-19.5% in the previous quarter).

In the third quarter, the number of residential transactions involving buyers with a tax domicile outside Portugal amounted to 2,741 (8.0% of the total), representing a decrease of 0.9% compared to the same period last year.

Purchases by buyers with a tax domicile in the European Union amounted to 1,349 units, down 9.2% compared to the same period in 2022, while transactions in the “other countries” tax domicile category increased by 8.7% to 1,392 homes.

During the period analyzed, the Lisbon metropolitan area accounted for 40.8% of the total value of placement transactions, approximately 2,900 million euros, representing a decrease of 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous year in terms of relative regional weight.

In the North, the value of homes sold reached 1,700 million euros, and in the Center – 982 million euros, with in both cases the relative weights increasing compared to last year (1.4 and 0.6 percentage points respectively).

The Algarve recorded a transaction value of €834 million, corresponding to 11.8% of the region’s share, down 1.0 percentage point compared to the same period in 2022, while in Alentejo the total value of house sales was 322 million euros, representing 4.6% of the total. (+0.2 percentage points year on year)

In the autonomous region of Madeira, the volume of residential transactions amounted to 212 million euros (3.0% of the total), and in the Azores – 91 million euros (1.3% of the total).