The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned this Friday that 2024 could break the heat record set in 2023 due to the El Niño phenomenon.
The planet’s warming trend, driven by El Niño, which caused temperatures in 2023 to break records every month between June and December, is expected to continue into 2024, according to the WMO, a UN agency.
As defined by the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA), El Niño is an abnormal warming of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean, mainly in its equatorial zone, affecting the global climate and the general circulation of the atmosphere.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the weather phenomenon, which appeared in mid-2023, could further increase temperatures in 2024, according to international news agencies.
“Because El Niño typically has the greatest impact on global temperatures after its peak, 2024 could be even hotter,” he warned. According to IPMA, El Niño occurs on average every four years and lasts from six months to 1.3 years.
The WMO annual report released today confirmed that 2023 was the world’s hottest year on record, confirming a report released Tuesday by Europe’s Copernicus Earth observation program (one of the WMO’s data sources). The previous annual heat record in the world was set in 2016.
Average global temperatures in 2023 were 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900), approaching the 1.5°C global warming limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, according to the WMO.
According to Copernicus, 2023 was 1.48°C warmer compared to pre-industrial times. Climate change monitoring service Copernicus estimates average global temperatures could exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels over the 12-month period ending in January or February 2024.
If this assessment is confirmed, the target set in the Paris Agreement, which set a limit for global average temperature rise of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, will be defeated.
However, this would be a symbolic failure because, according to the World Meteorological Organization, the goal set in the Paris Agreement is long-term, covering on average decades rather than a single year.
Scientists from the North American Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), which also revealed the 2023 balance today, estimate there is a one in three chance that 2024 will be warmer than 2023, and a 99% chance that 2024 will be warmer than 2023. will be ranked among the five hottest years on record.
According to NOAA, global temperatures in 2023 were 1.18°C higher than the 20th century average. According to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, it will be necessary to “radically reduce” emissions of greenhouse gases responsible for warming the planet and “accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources.”
“We cannot afford to wait any longer. We are already taking action, but we need to do more and faster,” he urged. Commenting on the World Meteorological Organization’s data, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who has been pressing for urgent action to combat the climate crisis, condemned humanity’s actions that are “burning the Earth.” “2023 is just a glimpse of the catastrophic future that awaits us if we do not act now,” he warned.
Since the 1980s, each decade has been warmer than the previous one, with the nine hottest years occurring between 2015 and 2023, according to the WMO.
The World Meteorological Organization, like Copernicus, recorded that last year there were exceptionally high temperatures on the surface of the oceans, and ice in Antarctica reached historic lows.
Author: Lusa
Source: CM Jornal
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