This Friday, the Bank of Portugal revised Portugal’s economic growth upward to 2% this year from what it expected in December, above the level recorded in OE2024 and what Prime Minister-designate Luís Montenegro expected.
The forecast is contained in the March economic bulletin published this Friday by the institution led by Mario Centeno, and it is more optimistic than at the end of 2023.
The Bank of Portugal (BdP) now forecasts growth of 2% this year, 2.3% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, an improvement of 0.8 percentage points (pp) in 2024 and 0.2pp . in 2025–2026 compared to the previous bulletin.
The forecast therefore reflects a slight slowdown in growth compared with 2023 after gross domestic product (GDP) grew above forecast (2.3% versus 2.1%), with economic activity rebounding in the latter period of the year.
Thus, the banking regulator looks more optimistic compared to the forecast of 1.5% included in the state budget for 2024 (OE2024), and 1.6%, which appeared in the macroeconomic scenario of the Democratic Alliance, PSD coalition, CDS-PP. and the PPM in the legislative elections of 10 March, which elected prime minister-designate Luis Montenegro.
The Bank of Portugal, which pointed to quarterly growth of 0.7% at the start of this year and 0.6% thereafter, predicts that growth in the Portuguese economy will be driven by investment and exports.
According to the regulator, in 2024–2026 this activity will depend on the impact of lower inflation, the expansionary impact of measures adopted in OE2024, the expected acceleration of external demand and the contribution of the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR), factors that also support favorable developments in the labor market (with a stable unemployment rate of 6.5%).
According to a bulletin published this Friday, exports this year will grow by 3.5%, investment by 3.6% and private consumption by 2.1%.
Growth forecasts for the Portuguese economy from the rest of the main national and international economic institutions range from 1.2% (European Commission and OECD) to 1.6% (Public Finance Council).
Author: Lusa
Source: CM Jornal
I’m Tifany Hawkins, a professional journalist with years of experience in news reporting. I currently work for a prominent news website and write articles for 24NewsReporters as an author. My primary focus is on economy-related stories, though I am also experienced in several other areas of journalism.