The National Statistical Institute (INE) released on Tuesday a brief estimate of the national accounts for 2022, with the government expecting gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by about 6.8%.
Most economists from major national and international institutions expect Portugal’s GDP to grow by 6.5-6.8% in 2022, which is an increase from what was predicted after the start of the war in Ukraine.
At the end of December, the finance minister said he was convinced that Portugal was ending “2022 with growth.” [da economia] about 6.8%”.
This rate is set above the 6.5% provided for in the State Budget for 2023 (OE2023), which was submitted to Parliament in October.
The executive’s unofficial forecast is in line with that of the Bank of Portugal (BdP), the most optimistic among the major national and international institutions, which has been revising upwards its GDP growth forecast for Portugal over the past year: it cut forecasts by 4.9% in March, it improved in June to 6.3%, in October to 6.7% and in December to 6.8%.
The forecasts of other institutions are similar: the Public Finance Council (CFP) expects GDP growth by 6.7%, the Organization for Cooperation and Development (OECD) by 6.7% and the European Commission by 6.6%. The International Monetary Fund predicts GDP growth at 6.2%.
If the forecasts come true, the growth rate will be higher than in 2021, when GDP increased by 5.5%.
According to INE data, Portugal’s GDP increased by 4.9% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 and grew by 0.4% compared to the second quarter.
The government has also shown some optimism for this year, with Prime Minister António Costa already saying economic indicators confirm confidence that the Portuguese economy will grow more in 2023 than originally forecast.
“Better prospects are opening up for the European and global economy. This reinforces the belief that this year we will not only grow as we predicted, but we will be able to grow more than we foresaw,” he said in statements to reporters at the White Castle Municipality.