The IMF has improved Portugal’s growth rate to 1.7% this year

The IMF on Tuesday raised its forecast for Portugal’s economic growth this year to 1.7%, appearing slightly more optimistic than the government, and cut inflation to 2.2%, according to an economic forecast released on Tuesday.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO), published as part of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, the Kristalina Georgieva-led institute points to an expansion in gross domestic product (GDP). will be 1.7% this year and 2.1% in 2025.

Compared to the report published last October, this forecast suggests an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points (pp) in 2024 and a decline of 0.1 percentage point in 2025.

The IMF is therefore more optimistic than the Portuguese government, which in its Stability Program (SP) for 2024-2028 calls for growth of 1.5% this year and 1.9% in 2025 in a constant policy scenario.

In an update to the Council of Public Finance’s (CFP) forecasts published this month, the body led by Nazare da Costa Cabral kept Portugal’s economic growth this year at 1.6% and forecast growth of 1.9% in 2025.

The Bank of Portugal (BdP) expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2%, while the European Commission and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) indicate growth of 1.2%.

The IMF also forecast inflation at 2.2% this year and 2% in 2025, downward revisions from the 3.4% in 2024 and 2.4% forecast in the October report.

The Bretton Woods establishment points to an unemployment rate of 6.5% this year and 6.3% in 2025.

The IMF is slightly less optimistic about economic growth in the eurozone and now forecasts GDP growth of 0.8% this year and 1.5% in 2025, according to forecasts released today.

On the other hand, the forecast for global economic growth this year improved by 0.1 percentage points. up to 3.2% in 2024.