Enlargement of the European Union during the war

The possible enlargement of the European Union (EU) faces an unprecedented situation in which all nine countries seeking membership have territorial disputes or disputes with neighboring states over the status of national minorities.

Successive enlargements of the European Economic Community, created by the 1957 Treaty of Rome between France, Italy, the Federal Republic of Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, were the result of strategic decisions in which the components of territorial integrity, security and defense were not taken into account. take top priority.

This was the case with the accession of the United Kingdom, Ireland and Denmark in 1973, with the accession of Greece (1981), Portugal and Spain (1986) as a result of the fall of right-wing dictatorships, or with the accession of Finland, Sweden and Austria into the European Union (created by Maastricht agreement in force since 1993) ended in 1995.

At the Copenhagen Summit in 1993, all new states, with greater or less stringency, met accession criteria that were more precisely defined and necessarily of a general nature to ensure political commitment.

The stability of democratic institutions, the rule of law, respect for human rights and the protection of minorities have since been presented as necessary conditions for achieving accession. Among the Copenhagen criteria are economic vectors, such as the existence of a market economy and the ability to withstand competition and market forces.

Finally, the administrative and institutional capacity for the effective implementation of the community acquis, that is, the legal provisions and obligations that bind member states, is taken into account.

After communism

The collapse of communist regimes in Europe, which occurred in the period 1989-1991, the reunification of Germany (1990), associated with the collapse of the Soviet Union (1991), however, had broader consequences that determined the negotiations.

The NATO accession processes, which began with the accession of Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic in March 1999, immediately led to the issue of security becoming of fundamental importance for the first time.

Thus, the Declaration of the Helsinki Summit in December 1999, concerning the process of enlargement by a further 13 countries, begun two years earlier, “emphasizes the principle of peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and calls on candidate states to make every effort to resolve any outstanding border disputes and other related issues.

The May 2004 expansion cemented inclusion in a political, economic and military space alien to Sovietism and Moscow’s traditional claims to spheres of influence reserved for states such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The importance of distance from Russia was also evident in the case of former Moscow dependent states and Warsaw Pact members such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary.

Slovenia emerged as the first Balkan unification and a stimulus for the stabilization of other entities resulting from the collapse of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia between 1991 and 1992. Although the annexation of Malta, still on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea, did not pose a problem, the Athens demand for the annexation of Cyprus caused serious violations in terms of compliance with the criteria of territorial integrity.

The northeast of the island was under the control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, an entity created after the Turkish invasion in the summer of 1994 and recognized exclusively by Ankara.

Turkish exception

Accession negotiations for Turkey, which requested the start of negotiations in 1987, signed a customs agreement in 1995 and received candidate state status in 1999, began in turn in October 2005. However, few states shared London’s position. interest in reaching an agreement with Ankara and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who since 2003 has positioned himself as the strongman in a country of more than 80 million people – more populous than Germany – and who has pursued policies that have often run counter to the EU’s democratic interests and values. .

2016 was the year Angela Merkel negotiated an unfair EU deal to contain Turkey’s surge of emigrants and refugees – especially Syrians, Iraqis, Kurds and Afghans – triggering a migration crisis in 2015 unprecedented since 1945, with 1.3 million requests for granting asylum. in European countries.

This was also the year when, with only 16 of the 35 sections of negotiations closed, Turkey’s accession process was effectively suspended indefinitely, without even negotiations to renegotiate and extend the 1995 trade agreement.

Russian threat

On the Balkan coast, despite numerous concerns and restrictions, Romania and Bulgaria managed to join in 2007, and in 2013 it was Croatia’s turn.

Beginning in 2009, the eurozone was rocked by a series of sovereign debt crises, severely affecting Portugal, Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland, followed by other emergencies such as Brexit, triggered by the British referendum in June 2016 and ending in January 2020, and the pandemic Covid-19. -19, but the strategic landscape was changing radically, with most European capitals suffering no consequences.

In August 2008, Russia imposed its military force on Georgia to ensure the secession of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The war in the Caucasus resolved a stalemate in Moscow’s favor in conflicts frozen after the collapse of the USSR and confirmed the Vladimir Putin regime’s goal to restore and, as far as possible, expand control over the former territories of Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union.

A Moscow-inspired uprising in eastern Ukraine and the subsequent invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 prompted Russia to increase support for Transnistrian separatists, who have occupied the strip of Moldova bordering Ukraine since 1990.

Moscow’s support is necessary to preserve this status quo which jeopardizes the entry of Chisinau.

With Belarus in his orbit, Putin risked provoking a large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and only then did Berlin, Paris and Rome begin to effectively heed the warnings of Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn against Russian expansionism. .

Political priorities

By opening accession negotiations in December 2023 with Ukraine and Moldova, and confirming Georgia’s status as a candidate country, the 27 countries clearly valued the political aspect. None of these states are even remotely qualified to join the European Union in the short term, although Council President Charles Michel points to 2030 as a viable accession date for Ukraine.

The fate of Kyiv depends on the course of the war, and Ukraine is the only state to join it with a significant economic and population size, exceeding 30 million inhabitants. The rest have a reduced demographic weight: from approximately 7 million in Serbia to just over 600 thousand inhabitants in Montenegro.

Apart from the accelerated negotiation process with Austria, Sweden and Finland, which lasted only 23 months, the process tends to be lengthy.

Negotiations with the UK, Ireland, Denmark, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia and Malta took four years and two months, and other processes ranged from four years and five months (Greece) to six years and one month for the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary. , Estonia, Slovenia and Cyprus.

Negotiations between Brussels and Spain, Bulgaria and Romania lasted six years and ten months.

Portugal put forward its candidacy in March 1977 and became a member in January 1986, one of the longest processes, second only to Croatia, which took ten years and five months.

The political need to demonstrate support is not commensurate with the difficulty and slowness of technical negotiations.

Political support is justified by the current commitment of the governments of the candidate countries to the values ​​of the European Union, as defined in Article 2 of the Lisbon Treaty: “Respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of people belonging to minorities. These values ​​are shared by Member States in a society characterized by pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, fairness, solidarity and equality between men and women.”

Instability as a brand image

In countries with marked political instability, such as Georgia and North Macedonia (with a significant Albanian minority and tense relations with Bulgaria and Greece and negotiating since March 2022), there is no certainty that such support for European values ​​or interest in integration or compliance 27 matches.

The EU-Western Balkans summit declaration clearly emphasizes the need for “final, comprehensive and binding solutions to regional and bilateral disputes and partners’ problems rooted in the legacy of the past, in accordance with international law and established principles, including the Agreement on Succession Matters.” [da Antiga República Federativa Socialista da Jugoslávia, celebrado em 2001]and pending cases relating to missing persons and war crimes.”

The final communiqué of the Brussels Summit on December 13, 2023 also refers to the imperative to guarantee “the rights and equal treatment of people belonging to minorities.”

Far from these goals, Bosnia and Herzegovina (a candidate state from December 2022) is in danger of disintegrating due to conflicts between the Bosnian Muslim, Croat Catholic and Serbian Orthodox communities. The same situation occurs in Montenegro (negotiations have been ongoing since June 2012), where antagonism with the Serb minority is strong, and in Albania (negotiations opened in July 2022), which has a territorial dispute with Greece in the Ionian Sea, which worsens the historical ethnic and religious conflicts between the two countries.

Since the opening of negotiations in June 2012, Serbia has followed a path marked by conflicts with neighboring states and a pro-Russian course.

Kosovo, for its part, has not yet received a response to a request for candidacy submitted in December 2022, and its unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia in February 2008 is not recognized by Greece, Romania, Slovakia, Cyprus and Spain.

Institutional reforms and measures

Enlargements imply and condition institutional negotiations in the European Union, which require consideration of treaty revisions. Once again, issues such as the veto and qualified majorities, the number and powers of Commission members, or consideration of the size of national representation in the European Parliament are being discussed among the 27 countries.

Strengthening cooperation with at least nine states – for example in the defense zone – derogations from Denmark in internal affairs and justice policy – partial and gradual integration – like Romania in the Schengen area – or deferment of obligations, like Sweden, which – despite meeting the criteria , necessary for the mandatory adoption, but without a specific deadline, of a single currency – decides not to join the euro, which operates in 20 of the 27 states, have so far been expedient decisions.

Everything immediately depends on the elections to the European Parliament, which, in the context of military conflicts in Europe and the Middle East and in the run-up to the November elections in the United States, will change the balance of power in the European Union.

Polls of voting intentions for the June 6-9 elections in Portugal on the 9th indicate a significant increase in votes for radical and far-right parties, especially in France, Germany and Austria.

If these trends are confirmed, much will have to be reconsidered from the point of view of the political prospects for the enlargement of the European Union.