Climatologist says Azores not in severe drought

Portuguese climate expert Eduardo Brito de Azevedo disagrees that the Azores are experiencing an unprecedented “extreme drought”, believing that winter rainfall maintains a hydrological balance.

“The statement that we are experiencing an unprecedented drought situation is, in my opinion, not entirely true. Although in August, first of all, there was a very significant precipitation anomaly, in negative terms, in hydrological terms it is not so, in no way the worst year in terms of water availability,” said Luce Brito de Azevedo.

The Azores have recorded, especially in August, temperatures above normal summer values ​​with highs of 29 and 30 degrees Celsius, as well as little rainfall.

The retired scientist and professor, who is the project manager for the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) project, the ARM Facility on Graciosa Island, the US Department of Energy and Los Alamos National Laboratory, stresses that “the fact that we have a fairly long period of good weather does not mean that we are in a period of severe drought.”

The climatologist notes that most of the Azores islands have no problems with the water load provided in winter to supply the population.

“From an agronomic point of view, August was actually a negative month in terms of rainfall, which had implications for agriculture, especially for livestock feed production,” he says.

According to the environmentalist, this scenario is due to “the persistence of the Azores anticyclone, which is well located in the Atlantic”, which “caused the weather”.

Brito de Azevedo argues that the “air temperature anomaly between 1.5 and 2.5 degrees” is “particularly due to another anomaly, namely the temperature of the sea water at the surface, which was, especially at the end of July and the beginning of August, very high.” “Significant and which should worry all sectors dependent on the economy.”

“This sea surface temperature anomaly is actually a more alarming signal. The Central Atlantic has warmed. In 2003, the surface temperature was the highest on record, and this year this warming has continued, especially in the first months of the year,” the specialist explains.

Brito de Azevedo notes that “it is curious that, starting in July, there has been a slight cooling trend, although in this area of ​​the Azores, in the central Atlantic, there remains a pocket of warm water, which has also led to an increase in air temperatures.”

The expert argues that this situation carries “some unpredictability in terms of the future, especially because the sea, unable to regulate air temperature as it does with thermoregulation, being warmer, can cause significant climate changes” with impacts on marine ecosystems and the composition of marine fauna and flora.

“Whether this situation can be maintained or not, climatology cannot yet answer,” says the scientist, emphasizing that the thermal anomaly “affects the occurrence and trajectory of tropical storms.”

According to Brito de Azevedo, at the beginning of August everything indicated that “this would be a very difficult time in terms of tropical storms, but since mid-August there has been a cooling of sea water temperatures in the equatorial areas where hurricanes start.”

Regarding climate change, the expert said that “it is already being felt” and that it will be “largely due to the unevenness of the climate” and that “the seasonality to which the Azores are accustomed has been lost, both winter and summer.”