Terrorist group IS-K has been linked to several attacks planned for 2024. High-profile plans include a deadly attack on concert hall in Moscow, Russia, unsuccessful attacks on three concerts of singer Taylor Swift in Austria, and two terrorist attacks in Iran.
According to Sky Newswho analyzed new data from Center for Information Resilience (CIR), there has been a dramatic increase in the group’s propaganda, which is being distributed in more languages than ever before.
As advertising increases, reaching audiences far beyond Afghanistan is also increasing the number of international attacks and planned attacks, posing a growing security threat to the West.
According to the same source, German authorities recently said they had thwarted ISIS attacks, while the country remains on high alert. In July, French authorities said they had foiled several terrorist plots targeting the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris.
In the weeks leading up to the Games, IS-K propaganda channels published several posters calling on supporters to attack various locations in Paris during the event.
Experts believe this trend of incitement will continue to gain momentum as the UN warns of a high level of threat from ISIS across Europe.
“This group is considered the largest external terrorist threat to the continent,” Vladimir Voronkov, deputy secretary-general of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism, said during briefing in August, quotes Sky News.
The Afghan wing of Daesh (IS), known as ISIS, ISIS-K or ISKP, has become the most globalized branch of the terrorist organization.
According to Ben den Braber, head of research at Afghan Witness, the team that produced the new data, CIR has also observed a gradual diversification of IS media and propaganda.
“Recently, especially after the intensification of propaganda, we have seen increased attention to Central Asia and Europe,” he said.
In addition to reaching its core audience in South and Central Asia, particularly Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the group is gradually expanding its media into more languages.
A recent letter from the public relations team announced the transfer of content into Urdu (an Indo-European language of the Indo-Aryan family that developed under Persian, Turkish and Arabic influences in South Asia), adding to the diversity of languages it already publishes, including Pashto, Persian, Tajik, Uzbek, Russian, Turkish, Azerbaijani, English and Arabic.
Global ambitions
ISIS first emerged in 2015, when its primary goal was to conquer territory in Afghanistan to help establish a caliphate, or territory controlled by a single ISIS ruler.
OK refers to Khorasan, a province of Afghanistan that historically encompassed parts of modern-day Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
“What’s really interesting about this is not that the Taliban has been able to limit attacks in Afghanistan. It’s been the adaptability of ISIS in Afghanistan in New York, the US.
After the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan, there was a noticeable shift in ISIS propaganda narratives, explains Dr. Amira Jadoon, an associate professor of political science at Clemson University and the author of a forthcoming book on ISIS.
“The vilification of the Taliban still exists. But we are seeing changes when it comes to different issues and grievances from different communities,” he said.
In addition to focusing its content on successful attacks and using local issues in key countries like Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to mobilize supporters, the group publishes propaganda aimed at resolving wider global conflicts.
Scholars see this as a way for ISIS to capitalise on feelings of hostility in the Muslim world and take advantage of anti-Western sentiment exacerbated by the war in Gaza.
“The goal here is to show that they are such a broad platform that everyone can participate,” he said.
Strategy
In August, a failed plot to attack three Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna, Austria, became the latest high-profile international conspiracy linked to IS-K. Austrian authorities say the prime suspect pledged allegiance to the group and consumed and distributed propaganda online.
According to the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the suspects intended to kill “tens of thousands” of people.
Such incidents, as well as the failed attacks in Paris during the Olympic Games, represent a small fraction of the terror attacks planned in Europe this year, of which experts estimate there are at least half a dozen so far.
In March, gunmen attacked and set fire to the Crocus City Hall concert hall in Moscow, Russia, killing about 140 people of Tajik descent.
While IS-K did not directly claim responsibility, the group shared video on one of the attackers’ advertising channels while they were committing the attack.
The violence in Moscow was also preceded by a series of anti-Russian messages on IS-K online channels.
Following the attack, the group posted a poster with the text: “Who’s next after Moscow?”, along with images and names of several major European cities.
According to experts, ISIS and its Afghan branch are now trying to gain international visibility by attracting media attention to recruit supporters and, most importantly, raise money.
It’s hard to track
In addition to distributing content through its own media outlets, content is widely distributed on media platforms such as Meta, X, and encrypted messaging apps such as Telegram.
Experts say IS encourages its supporters around the world to create their own propaganda to suit their position.
According to Sky NewsIS-K appears to be instigating attacks from afar. Much of the propaganda recruits self-radicalized supporters through online channels to carry out simple plots against civilians rather than to plan targeted attacks that rely on sending highly trained individuals to specific locations.
“Self-radicalization is one of the main threats of all this propaganda they spread,” said Dr. Jadoon, the author of a book on ISIS.
“Provoked” or inspired attacks can be very difficult to track, he said. “If someone is just consuming content and not engaging in it in any way, it becomes harder to detect.”
“Targeted attacks give police more opportunities to detect unusual activity in groups. The likelihood of having a paper trail increases,” he added.
Another obstacle to tracking ISIS content and possible conspiracies is the fact that media platforms have strict censorship rules.
Plans for the future
Counterterrorism experts say Western intelligence is good at penetrating online networks and disrupting them quickly and often. But some warn that with agencies in the West overwhelmed, something could go unnoticed.
“There’s so much going on in the world that there are gaps in intelligence and law enforcement monitoring,” said Lucas Webber, a senior threat analyst at Tech Against Terrorism, a U.N. initiative that tracks terrorist activity online.
“It will be difficult to prevent one or more attacks at this time,” he said.
