The number of Covid cases is starting to rise again, but it is unlikely to happen by Christmas as the population has developed significant immunity, according to ZOE health research lead.
However, a clearer picture of the outlook for the coming weeks will come in a few days as Black Friday sales will impact Covid figures, he said.
The number of cases could increase in the new year as new variants emerge and the spread of the virus expands at Christmas parties, predicts Tim Spector, a professor at King’s College London who is launching the app.
After remaining relatively stable over the past few months, daily symptomatic cases topped the 150,000 mark for the first time in six weeks, reaching 153,536 on Saturday, according to the latest ZOE data.
That’s a seven percent increase in two weeks.
As a result, the number of current cases is lower than for most of 2022 – with a record 351,546 in July – but higher than at any time this year.
But while that level is quite high, it’s unlikely to rise much in the coming weeks, Professor Spector said.
“Clearly the decline has stopped and is picking up again as people come to Christmas parties and shop and mix more, so I expect colds and Covid to pick up again,” he shared. I.
“But I don’t expect a big increase at the moment, so I’m not too worried. I would attribute this increase to the fact that the virus is still around and people are communicating more,” adding that the forecast could change quite quickly as “this is a pivotal week.”
He also said, “Maybe we’ll find out more next week. Weekends in London were dedicated to Black Friday. It will be interesting to see how much this pushes prices up. I expect it to push it a bit, but hopefully not drastically as we are still waiting for the new option to take over and we have a lot of immunity.”
Professor Spector says that a new dominant variant is likely to emerge early next year that can overcome much of the immunity created against the currently dominant BA.5 variant.
This can raise prices significantly.
“This is a prediction because the Christmas mix is likely to get a new variant that will attack people who were previously infected. They didn’t fight among themselves to see who was the winner,” he said.
Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick, believes a number of new variants could circulate in the coming weeks and months, with no clear winner.
Contenders to replace BA.5 have the BA.5 BQ.1 sublineage as the dominant variant, which is growing rapidly and already accounts for 37 percent of cases as of 6 November.
However, several much rarer variants are emerging that could potentially quickly grow and overtake it, but it’s still too early to predict, experts say.
These include B.2.75 and XBB.1, which “predominate infections in Singapore and other parts of Asia,” Prof Yang said.
“Currently, there is no single option that outshines the others, so we will likely continue to see multiple options in the coming months. Unlike earlier times, there is no clear picture of the dominant variant causing a significant wave. However, a new, more contagious and immune-preventable variant may emerge.
“The biggest fear is that something will go out of sight, as the existing options and sub-options seem to outnumber each other. A new non-micron variant even better adapted to infection and immune evasion would be very bad news.
According to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), other new options to keep an eye on are options BA.2, BA.2.3.20 and BJ.1.
Professor Carl Friston, a virus modeller at University College London, added: “The number of new cases will increase over the next week, with prevalence expected to peak in mid to late January.”
By then, he predicts, about five per cent of the UK population will have been infected – up from about 5.5 per cent at the time of the current record set in July.
Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick, said: “It was inevitable that the number of infections would rise as we approached winter. This is due to a combination of factors: the emergence of many new variants, reduced immunity from previous infections and vaccinations, and behavioral changes, especially close mixing in poorly ventilated areas.
“But we are not seeing a major wave of infections or an associated wave of hospitalizations. However, it would be wrong to believe that Covid is over. The virus continues to evolve and is likely to become more contagious and better able to evade the immune response. We must remain vigilant and provide maximum protection, ensuring that all qualified individuals receive their booster shots, and continuing to take measures to prevent the spread of the virus, such as: B. wearing masks in public places and, if possible, increasing ventilation in enclosed spaces. he said.
Steve Griffin of the University of Leeds added: “Without testing, improved ventilation or wearing masks in high-risk areas, there really is only one way to reduce the spread of the virus between now and Christmas in January.
“Evasion of BQ1.1 antibodies could signal a new wave of damage when the NHS is already at a breaking point. In addition, evidence suggests that BQ1.1, like BA5, can penetrate deeper into the lungs, which could cause problems if immunity continues to decline in many.”
Source: I News
I’m Raymond Molina, a professional writer and journalist with over 5 years of experience in the media industry. I currently work for 24 News Reporters, where I write for the health section of their news website. In my role, I am responsible for researching and writing stories on current health trends and issues. My articles are often seen as thought-provoking pieces that provide valuable insight into the state of society’s wellbeing.