Government scientists are ready to simulate a possible human avian flu outbreak as health officials remain concerned about the risks of a new pandemic.
The Pandemic Influenza Modeling Science Group (SPI-M) is ready to make predictions about the human impact of avian influenza if a virus found in poultry around the world mutates into a virus. easily transmitted to humans.
SPI-M is a subcommittee of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) that has provided advice to the government during the Covid-19 pandemic.
A SAGE member told me I: “It is necessary to model the impact of an outbreak of avian influenza on public health.
“This is just a precautionary measure as the risk of easy transmission of avian influenza to humans remains low, but it is important that we are prepared and I think this is what the public expects given the recent experience with Covid.”
Another government scientific adviser added: “A lot is being done behind the scenes to address potential problems with avian flu.”
It is understood that the SPI-M Commission will base its modeling on various levels of outbreaks, from a few human cases to a full-blown pandemic.
It will also estimate the critical replication rate of each airborne human avian influenza virus, which will show how many people each person has the potential to infect with the disease.
Other modeling efforts will assess the impact on the NHS if hospitals still recovering from the Covid pandemic are faced with an outbreak of human avian influenza.
In June, the government launched FluMap, a consortium of scientific institutions to fight the worst outbreak of bird flu in history.
The current variant of the H5N1 avian influenza virus, a branch known as 2.3.4.4b, has already killed about four million birds, including chickens, ducks and turkeys, in the UK and more than 100 million birds worldwide.
Official figures from the World Health Organization show that 868 cases of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus have been reported over the past 20 years.
While previous variants of the virus had a human mortality rate of about 60 percent, variant 2.3.4.4b is believed to have a lower mortality rate of 20 to 40 percent, but this is comparable to the peak mortality rate. cases of Covid-19 infection by only two percent.
The high death rate is just one reason public health officials are particularly concerned about this year’s strain of bird flu.
Another concern is that the virus appears to be more stable this season, meaning it is more likely to mutate, making it easier to transmit to humans.
The recent outbreak of the virus on a mink farm in Spain is also of concern, as mammals such as mink and ferrets have been shown to act as reservoirs for the virus, which, after some mutations, can be airborne and cause human-to-human infections. Infection.
Laboratory tests on ferrets in the US have also shown that avian influenza has mutated and become airborne.
Controversial laboratory tests known as “gain of function” modified avian flu viruses to make them more transmissible to humans, and the results showed that the virus had mutated and spread between ferrets.
This type of laboratory work was used in China’s bat coronavirus lab in Wuhan prior to the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
FluMap believes the mutations in the virus that make it transmissible to humans could reduce its effectiveness, but it could remain significantly more deadly than Covid-19.
Only one person in the UK is known to have contracted bird flu. Alan Gosling of Buckfastley, Devon contracted the disease from rescued ducks at his bird sanctuary last December. Mr. Gosling recovered and was denied in January.
Human cases of the current variant of the H5N1 virus have been identified in Europe. Earlier this month, Spanish health authorities confirmed the first two human cases at two poultry farms in the country, with two more cases identified in Cyprus earlier this week.
In October, a 38-year-old woman from Guangxi Province died after she contracted a poultry infection in her backyard in September.
I contacted the government for comment.
Source: I News
I’m Raymond Molina, a professional writer and journalist with over 5 years of experience in the media industry. I currently work for 24 News Reporters, where I write for the health section of their news website. In my role, I am responsible for researching and writing stories on current health trends and issues. My articles are often seen as thought-provoking pieces that provide valuable insight into the state of society’s wellbeing.