Britain is suffering from colds, flu and Covid-19 that will infect millions over Christmas and put even more strain on the National Health Service, experts warn.
The rise in infections is fueled by freezing weather forcing people indoors, as well as waning immunity to colds and especially the flu after almost three years of social distancing due to the pandemic.
The scientists say that increased contact with others, driven by Christmas shopping and encounters at the World Cup, is also playing a role.
The number of Covid infections rose 43 percent in just two weeks to 219,131 cases per day as of Wednesday, according to research by Zoe Health.
Tim Spector, the professor at King’s College London who runs the Zoe app, predicts that there will be around 250,000 new symptomatic cases daily by Christmas, peaking at around 300,000 in January, before declining.
This is only slightly below the July record of 351,546 cases, and significantly higher than for most of the pandemic.
But the number of people with colds and flu is four times higher than before Covid: According to the Zoe app, one in six people are currently infected with one or the other.
“We have a triple whammy of three viruses hitting us around the same time, and we are probably more vulnerable to them because we haven’t been exposed in almost three years,” Professor Spector told me. I.
“The cold virus is rampant as we approach our highest numbers since the start of the pandemic. And we have the flu again, and Covid is on the rise again,” he said.
“With Covid, I don’t think there is a sinister conspiracy with vaccines or deadly options. Of course, there is a possibility, cold weather, and then a huge amount of Christmas shopping and football, which brings people together.
At the more severe end of the scale, the average number of patients hospitalized with influenza last week was 1,162, almost two-thirds more than the week before. For the first time since the start of the pandemic, the number of flu patients in hospitals slightly exceeded the number of Covid patients.
The number of patients with the most severe case of influenza also increased to 87 patients in intensive care units, up nearly 50 percent from the previous week.
During the same period last winter, when flu rates were unusually low, only 25 flu patients were hospitalized each day, and only one was in intensive care.
During the pandemic, the flu fell much faster than the common cold, as the flu is much less contagious, meaning Covid restrictions have had a much bigger impact on the numbers.
And as a result, the loss of immunity to influenza in the population due to the significant decline in infection rates is largely responsible for the current surge.
The Zoe app is the first to measure the total number of colds and flu cases nationwide each day, though it doesn’t distinguish between colds and flu and only started collecting data two years ago.
This shows that the number of cold and flu combinations is currently the highest since Zoe’s recording began, and Professor Spector expects it to indeed be the highest since the start of the pandemic.
However, experts say that combined cold and flu levels are not particularly high compared to pre-pandemic times, but have returned to lower levels in recent years.
But there are two things that are making the viral landscape tougher than usual this year, even in pre-pandemic times, they argue.
The first is the presence of Covid, which did not exist a few years ago, even if the consequences are generally less severe today than during the pandemic.
Secondly, the incidence of influenza is significantly higher than the average compared to the period before the pandemic. And the flu is much more serious than the common cold, though despite the resurgence, the flu is still much less common than the common cold.
Hospitalization data shows that the number of influenza cases is close to levels last seen during the 2017-2018 outbreak, one of the worst flu years in two decades, which killed nearly 30,000 people. However, they remain well below the peak of the last 20 years, which was recorded in 2010/11.
“The flu is definitely worse than a typical pre-pandemic year, but not yet as bad as two bad seasons in the last 10 years,” says Professor Paul Hunter from the University of East Anglia.
Steve Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, added: “Influenza has virtually disappeared in 2020 and has been very low, mainly due to Covid measures such as face masks and reduced social contact. The flu has a lower R-value than Covid and the common cold,” meaning it is less contagious.
Katherine Moore, a consultant clinician for Public Health Wales, said the flu’s problems are exacerbated by its greater than usual overlap with other common respiratory viruses, such as RSV or respiratory syncytial virus infection.
“Influenza appears earlier this year in the UK, but not as severely. There was a very serious epidemic in Australia that started early and reached a very high peak,” she said. I.
“Unfortunately, such an early start [in the UK] means that it circulates with RSV. RSV usually peaks around Christmas, followed by influenza A and then influenza B. The last time I remember such a season was in the winter after the 2009 swine flu pandemic, when we caught influenza A together, had influenza B and RSV. .” She said.
“We have had two years of very low prevalence of our common viruses. This is the first winter that seasonal viruses have circulated freely since the start of the pandemic. We do not yet know how Covid will fit into seasonal epidemics, whether it will be disrupted or suppressed by other viruses, although this year’s data shows that under the right conditions, viruses can easily circulate together. She said.
Dr Conall Watson, epidemiology adviser at the UK Health Security Agency, said: “Influenza is now widespread and we are seeing a sharp increase in influenza-related hospitalizations this week, especially among five-year-olds and over 85s.
“Now the number of hospitalizations is at its highest level since the 2017/18 season, and we expect the number of cases to continue to rise as winter approaches.
“The flu vaccine provides the best protection against serious illness, and it’s not too late for anyone who qualifies to do so. Usage is especially low for children aged two to three years. So please accept the offer if your child qualifies.
Dr. Griffin points out that cold weather alone is not responsible for the spread of viruses because, contrary to popular belief, they do not benefit from frost.
“It is a myth that viruses prefer colder weather. This is partially true for this rhinovirus [a common cold virus] prefers the temperature of the cells in our upper airways over the lower ones, but we are talking about 33 degrees instead of 37 degrees, not the environment, ”said the doctor. Breathtaking.
It encourages members of the public who are susceptible to influenza to get vaccinated, as well as anyone who is eligible for Covid vaccination.
Simon Williams of Swansea University said: “There is cause for concern as we approach winter. The National Health Service is already overwhelmed – waiting times for ambulances and emergency services are already well above targets. We are already seeing an increase in hospitalizations due to Covid and influenza.
“The problem is that the side effects of being hospitalized with many infectious diseases will continue to weigh on the NHS in the coming months, but this is hard for many people to see; Long waits for emergency care or ambulances are only a problem when we need those services,” he said.
Last week, NHS staff handled 706,129 NHS 111 calls for urgent but not life-threatening matters; up over 60 percent from the previous week.
With the exception of two weeks of the first month of the Covid pandemic, March 2020, this is the highest number of emergency calls on record.
The NHS has received more calls from concerned parents about the rise in Streptococcus A infections, more than doubling from the same week last year.
Professor Sir Stephen Powys, NHS National Medical Director, said: “This huge increase in calls to NHS 111 is understandable given concerns about winter viruses, including Streptococcus A, are a top priority for the public, but more important than ever, what the public understands Whenever possible, use the 911 online service to get important information about non-urgent health problems and get directions to the best care.
“NHS teams are working hard to keep disruptions to a minimum and while people may see their local services affected during a life threatening emergency strike they should continue to call 999 and attend pre-scheduled appointments as planned. unless they contacted for reissuance.
“Earlier this month, I warned of a ‘perfect storm’ of winter pressure, but the National Health Service has prepared like never before with the launch of fall emergency services, systems control centers, extra equivalent beds and additional on-call services, so please speak up. to raise concerns, you need to get covid and flu shots if you qualify.
Separate data released today by the Office for National Statistics, which does not match Zoya’s estimates, showed that the number of Covid infections rose by about 2% in the week ended December 5 compared to the previous week.
Source: I News
I’m Raymond Molina, a professional writer and journalist with over 5 years of experience in the media industry. I currently work for 24 News Reporters, where I write for the health section of their news website. In my role, I am responsible for researching and writing stories on current health trends and issues. My articles are often seen as thought-provoking pieces that provide valuable insight into the state of society’s wellbeing.