The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has said that the next wave of Covid to hit the UK is likely to be caused by the XBB.1.5 variant currently sweeping the United States.
As of January 11, there were 151,373 new symptomatic cases of Covid in the UK, according to the ZOE-Covid survey. Their number has been declining since the beginning of 2023.
There are still very few cases of XBB.1.5 in the UK – as of January 11, 161 cases were reported to the UK SOS – but experts expect this number to increase significantly. Here’s everything you need to know.
What is the XBB.1.5 variant?
XBB.1.5 belongs to the Omicron family and is highly contagious.
It contains mutations that make it easier for the virus to attach to human cells, making it more easily transmitted.
It also has immune evasion mutations, meaning that vaccines may be less effective against transmission, although scientists believe that vaccination still provides strong protection against serious illness and death.
Most people will have some form of immunity from both previous infections with Omicron and vaccines, especially those in their 50s who received an Omicron-matched booster in the fall of 2022.
Will there be a new wave of Covid?
Along with the XBB.1.5, the UKHSA has identified another variant, the CH.1.1, also an Omicron sub-line, which could become dominant in the UK in the coming months. However, this option is expected to outperform XBB.1.5.
CH.1.1’s growth advantage over current options is estimated at 21.56% compared to 38.8% for XBB.1.5.
The UKHSA said there is a possibility the new variants could trigger a new wave of infections in the UK.
Its datasheet stated: “The growth benefit associated with XBB.1.5. biologically plausible given the combination of immune evasion properties and ACE-2 [receptor binding] Affinity is expected based on available laboratory data.
“CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5 are currently the options that are most likely to prevail after BQ.1 in the UK unless more new options come along. It is likely that XBB.1.5 will lead to an increase in incidence after the current rise, but it is too early to confirm this trend at this time.”
Dr Mira Chand, Director of Clinical and Emerging Infections at the UKHSA, said: “Through our genomic surveillance, we continue to monitor the development of variants in the Omicron family. The UKHSA is constantly monitoring the situation and trying to understand the impact on public health.
“Vaccination remains our best defense against future waves of Covid-19, so it remains important for people to be proactive and take whatever doses they qualify for as soon as possible.”
Will there be another lockdown?
Ministers rule out national lockdowns or school closures.
This was reported by a well-informed source in the government. I: “There is a list of possible measures. Ministers ruled out lockdowns and school closures. But milder and less drastic measures may soon be introduced if the NHS is in danger of collapsing.
“The focus here is on orientation. Nothing can be imposed or enforced. While the policy for sick people is to wear masks when leaving the house, it may well be that wearing a mask will again become a policy for all public transport users.”
Officials have developed a simplified version of social distancing, advising people to avoid crowded spaces.
None of the new measures will be mandatory, but they will reflect some of the preventive measures in place at the height of the pandemic.
Dr McKay of the NHS Confederation said: “We don’t think we’re at the stage where we need to think about a possible return to the measures taken in the midst of the pandemic, including mandatory masks, more social distancing. or restoring guidelines for the public to work from home where they can. NHS leaders understand the trade-offs involved in implementing these measures and will only reintroduce them as a last resort, but taking action to prevent the spread of the disease to others remains prudent.
Source: I News
I’m Raymond Molina, a professional writer and journalist with over 5 years of experience in the media industry. I currently work for 24 News Reporters, where I write for the health section of their news website. In my role, I am responsible for researching and writing stories on current health trends and issues. My articles are often seen as thought-provoking pieces that provide valuable insight into the state of society’s wellbeing.