The number of heat-related deaths could rise in the coming decades as climate change in the UK is already affecting the country’s health, according to a major report.
Temperatures in the UK topped 40C for the first time in history last summer, with nearly 3,000 extra people dying during the period, while many other countries have experienced intense and prolonged heat waves in recent months.
In a report on the health impacts of climate change, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) says that deaths from extreme heat will increase by 1.5 times by the 2030s and 12 times by 2070.
Flooding will also increase, which will have a negative impact on mental health: people affected by flooding are at higher risk of depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder.
In the same high-emissions scenario, cold-related mortality is expected to increase for a while and then decline, with extreme cold-related mortality declining by mid-century and moderate cold-related mortality approaching a peak reached at the same time. and will decrease in the future. 2070s. Thus, despite the increase in temperature, mortality from the cold will remain significant.
Warmer temperatures will also allow infectious diseases to enter the UK from tropical islands. Asian tiger mosquitoes, which carry dengue fever, could spread to Britain by the middle of this century due to climate change, government health experts say. Warmer conditions have allowed the stinging insect to spread across much of Europe in recent years, moving with people and transporting goods.
It is known for its striped body and ability to spread dengue fever, Zika virus and chikungunya virus, diseases usually associated with the tropics. They typically live in urban areas rather than swamps and feed during the day, increasing the risk of being bitten.
The report says dengue fever could be transmitted in London by 2060, and the mosquito itself could spread across England by the 2040s. Officials also said other food- and water-borne infectious diseases could become more common as the risk of further pandemics increases.
Professor Dame Jenny Harris, chief executive of UKHSA, said: “What were called tropical diseases when I trained many years ago are actually becoming national house diseases. In the summer of 2022, temperatures in the UK reached above 40°C for the first time in history.
“Around 3,000 additional deaths were recorded during this extended heat wave, while many other countries have experienced severe and prolonged heat waves in recent months. Assuming a high emissions scenario, health-related deaths in the UK are expected to increase by more than 100 percent in the 2030s, by more than 500 percent in the 2050s and by more than 1,000 percent by 2070.”
The report assumes a “worst-case scenario” in which global temperatures rise 4 degrees or more above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. That doesn’t mean it’s the most likely scenario, but independent scientists say governments should still prepare for the worst rather than underestimate the risk, as was the case during the Covid pandemic.
Food prices are also likely to become more volatile as most UK imports come from regions vulnerable to climate impacts such as drought. Wildfires that produce toxic smoke are expected to become more common during hotter, drier summers. Those most at risk from these threats are the elderly, young children, and people with pre-existing health problems.
The Earth has already warmed 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, and the amount of carbon in the atmosphere means further warming is already underway, even if emissions begin to fall overnight.
This means that in addition to reducing emissions, some adjustments are necessary. Housing improvements, flood protection and extreme temperature warnings will help mitigate some of these growing threats, according to the UKHSA.
Jolyon Medlock, an entomologist with the UKHSA, said monitoring borders could help slow the spread of mosquitoes and people could keep them out at home by covering standing water or empty containers while the insects lay eggs inside.
Dame Jenny said: “Climate change is a major threat that is undermining public health around the world, not only increasing the burden of mortality from extreme temperatures and weather conditions, but also increasing the spread of infectious diseases and exacerbating the fragility of global systems. “on which our health depends, increasing the population’s vulnerability to existing geopolitical, energy and cost of living crises.”
Nigel Arnell, professor of climate change science at the University of Reading, said: “The ‘highest’ estimate of health impacts in 2050 is likely to be only slightly higher under the high-emissions scenario than under the low-emissions scenario.” until the differences are very large by the end of the century, so it is important that we start cutting emissions as quickly as possible.”
Source: I News
I’m Raymond Molina, a professional writer and journalist with over 5 years of experience in the media industry. I currently work for 24 News Reporters, where I write for the health section of their news website. In my role, I am responsible for researching and writing stories on current health trends and issues. My articles are often seen as thought-provoking pieces that provide valuable insight into the state of society’s wellbeing.