The number of Covid cases has risen by nearly two-thirds in the past two weeks as a new highly contagious sub-variant of the octopus spreads rapidly across the UK.
But how much of the surge is due to Kraken, officially known as XBB.1.5, and how concerned should we be about it?
The number of daily symptomatic infections rose 64 percent in the past two weeks to 139,405 on Tuesday, according to the latest data from the ZOE Health Study.
This spike is higher and faster than expected and is clearly worrying, but in context it comes from a relatively low base.
The number of daily new infections fell below 100,000 for the first time in more than a year in mid-January and fell below 90,000 in the last week of January.
Thus, there has been a significant rebound as, while disappointing, the number of cases remains well below its previous high of about 350,000 symptomatic cases per day recorded in the spring and again last summer.
The question is what will happen next and whether the cases will match or even exceed previous peaks.
On the other hand, the octopus, thought to have originated in New York City and is now the most common sub-variant in much of the United States, is growing rapidly in the UK.
It was first identified in the UK in December, according to Covid-19 Genomics UK or COG-UK, and has been rising rapidly, accounting for 11% of new infections as of 21 January.
And it’s believed to have spread widely since then, as a new analysis from the University of Basel’s Neherlab this week predicted that “XBB.1.5 is likely to become dominant in Europe by the end of February” – and possibly a little earlier at the end of February. UNITED KINGDOM. where the subspecies is more established than in most of the rest of the continent.
But the outlook may not be as bleak as it first appears. That’s because the spread of octopuses only explains part of the recent spike in Covid cases, experts say.
As of 21 February, two other variants in the UK had a significantly higher proportion of Covid infections than octopuses — CH.1.1 at 26 percent and BQ.1.1 at 39 percent, according to COG-UK.
And while Kraken’s share of new infections is growing rapidly, that growth has not been as fast as the rise in Covid infections in general. Therefore, the threat of subvariant dominance is unlikely to result in a corresponding increase in the number of cases.
Other factors contributing to the recent increase in cases include cold weather, which is forcing people to gather more indoors, and the return of children to school and adults to work after Christmas, which is currently leading to a significant rise in cases.
Both effects will fade in the coming weeks as the weather warms and the effects of going back to school fade.
There are also natural cycles for viruses that are not fully understood, especially in the case of Covid, which suggest that while cases will continue to rise in the coming weeks, they are likely to drop again after that.
At the same time, the new variant, although significantly more contagious than the others, does not differ significantly from other sub-variants of Omicron.
This means that the immunity built from previous infections and vaccines continues to slow the rise of Covid, albeit far from perfect.
But this should not be taken for granted, the scientists warn. Immunity could potentially drop significantly at any time, as many people in this department still don’t understand what Covid is.
However, experts such as Professor Christina Pagel of University College London believe that the number of cases is unlikely to approach previous highs and is much more likely to reach the levels seen in October and December last year than in the usual case. and 225,000, briefly rising to around 250,000.
This is well above the level of less than 100,000 seen last month and well above the level of the first few months of the pandemic. But this is much lower than last year and well below the 2022 highs.
There is also no evidence that octopus is more dangerous than other strains currently in existence, and scientists hope it is milder, although it is too early to tell for sure.
And for most, but not all, people, the infection is no longer as severe as it was at the beginning of the pandemic.
But Covid remains a major problem that won’t go away anytime soon, and scientists are urging the public to do everything possible to minimize its spread: wear masks in crowded spaces, accept any offer of a vaccine, and help others as much as possible to avoid the onset of symptoms.
Source: I News
I’m Raymond Molina, a professional writer and journalist with over 5 years of experience in the media industry. I currently work for 24 News Reporters, where I write for the health section of their news website. In my role, I am responsible for researching and writing stories on current health trends and issues. My articles are often seen as thought-provoking pieces that provide valuable insight into the state of society’s wellbeing.