The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, said this Friday that the country is experiencing a “double reality” where the overall economic performance, considered very good, takes time to get to the “pockets of families”.
“These are general figures, but predicting figures for families takes time (…) because interest rates on housing and consumer credit are still high,” the head of state stressed in a statement to journalists in Seixal, Setúbal.
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa reacted to data released this Friday by the Bank of Portugal (BdP), which forecasts the Portuguese economy to grow by 2.7% this year and 2.4% in 2024, by revising GDP forecasts upwards.
The BdP is also seeing an improvement in the budget balance faster than the government, pointing to a 0.1% deficit this year followed by a 0.2% surplus from 2024.
For the president of the republic, the growth can be even higher.
However, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa emphasized that it takes time for the results to reach the Portuguese, noting that inflation “is still calculated at 5.2% for this year”.
“[A inflação] This is still in terms of some goods, especially food, a tangible cost and a tangible pressure on the incomes of those who have less,” he stressed.
“Therefore, there is a double reality here, in which, on the one hand, it says that it is very good, and on the other hand, that it is not so good,” he concluded.
In the Economic Bulletin for July, presented this Friday in Lisbon by Bank Supervisory Governor Mario Centeno, activity growth forecasts have been improved from 1.8% this year and 2% in 2024 and 2025 expected in March.
“The Portuguese economy is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2023, 2.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025,” the report said.
Therefore, the regulator is more optimistic than the government, which forecasts growth of 1.8% this year and 2% in 2024.
After a gross domestic product (GDP) deficit of 0.4% in 2022, BdP forecasts a contraction to 0.1% in 2023 and a surplus of 0.2% in subsequent years.
The forecast of an institution led by a former finance minister, which has achieved a budget surplus for the first time in the history of a democracy, turns out to be more optimistic than the forecast of the government, which considers the deficit for 2023 to remain at the level of 2022 and slightly improve the deficit to 0.2% and 0.1 % in 2024 and 2025.