Rich countries will phase out fossil fuels by 2040, UN scientists say

Two leading international climate scientists, in a letter sent to the United Nations during COP28, argue that developed OECD countries should phase out all fossil fuels by 2040, and the rest of the world by 2050.

The letter, which AFP had access to, was sent to the UN Secretary-General and UN Climate Action, and in it both scientists stress the need to adopt a new calendar that is stricter than previously thought. If the world wants to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, negotiations will be centered in Dubai until December 12.

The calendar is the result of calculations by Johan Röckström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany and his colleague Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, which they sent on Friday to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and UN Climate Action.

The two climate scientists base their findings on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the “carbon budget” needed to maintain the 1.5°C limit, the amount of greenhouse gases that still need to be emitted. into the atmosphere, causing this warming.

“Knowing whether we’re going to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 or whether we’re just going to be satisfied with very sharp cuts” in fossil fuel use “should not be at the center of the debate” at COP28, Johan Röckström warned.

In Dubai, “discussions must focus on serious and fair efforts to implement the exit plan,” he added.

According to the note, OECD countries should phase out coal by 2030, and the rest of the world by 2040. For oil and gas, exit should occur in 2040 for the OECD and 2050 for the rest of the world.

Even this timeline is potentially insufficient, given some more pessimistic estimates of the remaining carbon budget, which would require a complete phase-out of fossil fuels for the OECD by 2030, and for the rest of the world by 2040.

However, such a schedule is unlikely and is not included in any of the energy transition scenarios, even the most optimistic ones.

Global greenhouse gas emissions, the vast majority of which come from burning fossil fuels, should fall by about 6% to 7% a year and be halved from current levels by 2030, climate scientists say, citing the IPCC and the International Energy Agency.