Do you love chocolate? Cocoa prices continue to rise and may not have peaked yet.

The price of cocoa on international markets has risen 150% since the start of the year to reach US$10,000 a tonne for the first time, but there are doubts the peak has been reached, according to analysts consulted by Lusa.

The price of cocoa futures for May delivery traded on the New York Stock Exchange has been rising since last year, with the commodity hitting new all-time records on Tuesday, momentarily trading above $10,000 a ton.

On international markets, the price of cocoa has increased by 60% over the past year, but since the beginning of the year, in less than three months, the price of cocoa has already increased by almost 150%, emphasizes Banco Carregosa senior economist Paulo Rosa.

The driving force behind this increase is primarily a lack of supply, which the economist points out is evident in the negative slope of the price curve for various futures contracts, which command higher prices for immediate delivery as well as those for shorter maturities. than long-term contract prices (given that the growth in demand for cocoa remains constant and predictable for many years).

Paulo Rosa highlights that the futures contract for December 2025 delivery is quoted at $5,650, which is almost 45% below current prices for May delivery.

Given that the $10,000-a-tonne mark in futures for May delivery could pose a psychological barrier for investors, Enrique Thome, a spokesman for brokerage XTB, said one should not “rule out the possibility that cocoa prices will start to improve a little.”

However, he emphasizes that “buying power has been very strong recently” and that in recent months, “moments when the price seemed to show signs of slowing down were eventually marked by strong upward movements in cocoa.”

“It is therefore still difficult to move forward if prices have already peaked, especially since supply issues may worsen and this should be reflected in commodity prices,” he said, stressing that “these increases may not only be related to fundamentals, but also related to the speculative activities of the funds.”

Paula Rosa warns that chocolate manufacturers are gradually beginning to reflect the increase in the content of this agricultural raw material in their products and, as a result, “end consumers will see higher prices for chocolate and all sweets that use cocoa in their production.”

Shortages of the commodity were already felt last year, but supply shortages, especially from West Africa, the main producing region (which is expected to record its third annual shortage), are expected to be even greater this year. , due to lower-than-expected yields as a result of growing problems caused by swollen shoot disease, heavy rains and dry heat affecting crops.

“The prospects for the next harvest are not encouraging, as a growing shortage of cocoa is likely, and this fact could increase prices a little further,” emphasizes Paulo Rosa, pointing to a fourth consecutive shortage of cocoa in the next harvests.

Major global producers include Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, with global market shares of 43% and 20% respectively.

“The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) expects that the global cocoa deficit could widen to 374 thousand metric tons in 2023/24, up from a negative balance of 74 thousand metric tons in 2022/23,” said a senior economist at Banco Carregosa.

Paulo Rosa further notes that ICCO estimates that global cocoa production in 2023/24 will fall by 11% year-on-year to 4.45 million metric tons, and global cocoa grinding will fall by almost 5%, leading to an increase in stock ratio / crust from 2023/24 to the lowest level in more than 40 years.

Henrique Thomé stresses that although other producers such as Brazil or Ecuador want to increase their production, it will be “several years before the newly planted cocoa trees bear fruit.”

“In addition, new environmental rules that are about to be approved in the European Union, a major importer of cocoa, are expected to further limit supplies. change in future prices,” says an XTB representative.