Study finds global GDP could shrink by 10% if temperatures rise three degrees

Global gross domestic product (GDP) could shrink by 10% if the planet’s temperature rises by three degrees Celsius (ºC), according to a study published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change.

“If we take into account that warmer years also bring changes in precipitation and temperature variability, the estimated impact of rising temperatures turns out to be worse than previously thought,” explained economist Paul Weidelich of ETH Zurich, who led the international team responsible. for a study published Wednesday by the Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich, Switzerland.

The paper, which used projections from 33 global climate models, argues that future economic growth depends on strict climate action and argues that limiting Earth’s warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial averages instead of 3°C could cut global losses due to climate change by two thirds.

“Our results show that the cost of inaction on climate change is significant,” said Sonia Seneviratne from ETH Zurich and co-author of the study.

“Some still say the world cannot afford rapid decarbonization, but the global economy will also suffer from the consequences of climate change,” insisted the vice-president of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Global warming of 3 degrees increases the risk of heavy rainfall across the planet, reducing global GDP by an average of 0.2%, which, given the current size of the economy, would be equivalent to $200 billion (€187.6 billion).

Among the extreme climate events considered, heat waves have the greatest impact. The study suggests that “almost half of the economic damage due to global warming of 3°C could be attributed to extreme heat.”

However, the research team acknowledges that it is difficult to predict the effects of climate variability and extremes because they also depend on their duration and how societies adapt.

On the other hand, he believes the overall cost of climate change is likely to be much higher, given that his study does not take into account the non-economic impacts of events such as droughts and rising sea levels.