Atmospheric events such as heavy snowfall or intense rain can increase the likelihood of earthquakes, according to a study published this Wednesday in which the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) participated.
Scientists have found that, in addition to looking for the causes of earthquakes in the collision of tectonic plates or the movement of faults, it is also necessary to look at climate as a “second-order factor.”
This pioneering study has already documented some earthquakes that have occurred in recent years – in addition to other current tremors – in Japan that may have been caused by previous meteorological events.
“We see that snowfall and other surface environmental loads influence the state of underground stress, and that the timing of heavy rainfall is closely related to this,” said William Frank, co-author of the study and assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences. and the MIT Planetarium (EAPS).
The project also included former MIT researcher Qing-Yu Wang, now at the University of Grenoble-Alpes, EAPS physician Xin Cui, Yang Lu from the University of Vienna, Takashi Hirose from Tohoku University and Kazushige Obara from the University of Tokyo.
The MIT team, along with Japanese partners, has been trying since late 2020 to discover patterns that explain the persistence of earthquakes on the Noto Peninsula (Japan), where, according to the study, multiple long-lasting earthquakes have occurred without an initial one or causing shock. Of course, as usual.
The researchers looked at earthquake data and Japan Meteorological Agency monitoring sites across the country over the past 11 years to get an idea of how quickly the seismic wave traveled between these stations.
In this way, the researchers created an evolutionary picture of seismic velocity beneath the Noto Peninsula and noticed that since 2020, changes in wave speed have been synchronized with the seasons.
“When it rains or snows, it adds weight, which increases pressure, which allows seismic waves to travel more slowly, and when all that weight is removed through evaporation or runoff, the pressure suddenly drops and seismic waves test faster. ” said Frank.
Thus, scientists have discovered that the series of earthquakes that affected the inhabitants of Noto can be partly explained by seasonal rains and, in particular, heavy snowfalls.
“We see that the moment when earthquakes occur coincides perfectly with the moments when heavy snowfall occurs,” Frank emphasized, although he emphasizes that these are “second-order factors” and that the main “trigger” will always come from under land.
Researchers now suspect that this new link between earthquakes and climate may not be unique to Japan and may play a role in seismic activity in other parts of the world.
Moreover, they predict that climate’s influence on earthquakes may be more pronounced under global warming as the world faces a “changing climate with heavier precipitation.”
They warned that this would change “the way weight acts on the Earth’s crust” and would certainly affect earthquakes.
Author: Lusa
Source: CM Jornal
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