UN predicts China’s population will shrink by 50%, reflecting the cost of the one-child policy

A demographic crisis will cut China’s population by more than half by 2100, a result of the one-child policy and changes in Chinese society, according to new UN estimates.

In global estimates released this week, the UN predicts that China’s population will fall from its current 1.4 billion to 639 million by the end of this century, a much steeper drop than the 766.7 million predicted just two years ago.

That’s an optimistic figure compared with other estimates: researchers at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predict that China will have just 525 million people by the end of the century, a 62.5% decline.

China’s population fell by two million in 2023, the second consecutive annual decline, official figures show.

Compared with 2016, when the country’s one-child policy ended, the number of births has fallen from 17.86 million to 9.02 million last year – a drop of more than 50%.

The one-child policy strengthened the country’s workforce: with fewer children, young people could be more productive.

For years, as China opened up its economy, the percentage of working-age Chinese grew faster than the share of the population not working. This has been a major factor in accelerating the country’s transformation in recent decades, but it now threatens to become a burden as the current generation ages.

A UN report shows how China’s demographic window opened faster and more sharply than other developing countries, but closed just as quickly.

China’s population of people aged 20 to 64 (working age) grew faster than children and the elderly in the years after the policy was enacted. Before the policy was repealed, the trajectories had already reversed.

The effects are already being felt in the mass closure of kindergartens: About 15,000 institutions closed in China last year, with enrollments falling by 5.3 million compared to 2022, according to government data.

“The situation is serious,” Zhang Li, director of an education startup, told Lusa. “Next will be primary schools, basic and secondary education,” he said.

But the true impact on Chinese society will only be felt mid-century, when many of those born under the one-child policy retire while still caring for their aging parents.

The UN predicts that by 2050, 31% of Chinese will be 65 years of age or older. In 2100, that percentage will be 46%, approaching half the population.

Using immigration to combat an ageing population seems out of the question: China defines itself as a “non-migrant” country. Beijing does not recognize dual citizenship. Citizenship is based on the principle of “jus sanguinis” (right of blood) and can only be granted to people of Chinese descent.

Profound changes in Chinese society also rule out a restoration of the birth rate.

“Women are more aware,” Zhao Hua, a 28-year-old Chinese woman from Beijing, told Lusa. “Gender inequality in China is still deep: men want a traditional family where the woman takes care of the children and the housework,” he added.

Several young Chinese women interviewed by Lusa highlighted this discrepancy in expectations in a society that is modernizing at a pace unmatched in modern history. In 1980, only 19.4 percent of China’s population lived in urban areas, according to the World Bank. In 2023, that figure had risen to about 66 percent.

“Women now have their own careers and incomes and they don’t want to play this role,” explained Luxe Yang Qian, a native of Hebei province, neighboring Beijing.