The number of people with dementia in England and Wales will double to 1.7 million in just 17 years – half a million more than previously predicted, scientists have found.
Scientists expect dementia cases to be 42 percent higher by 2040 than current estimates, and they believe rising obesity rates may be largely responsible for the higher-than-expected projections, although this has not yet been confirmed.
The proportion of British adults who are overweight or obese has increased from 52.9 percent in 1993 to 64.3 percent in 2022, according to the National Health Service.
Meanwhile, a number of studies have linked obesity to dementia, including a University College London study published in the International Journal of Epidemiology in 2020.
New analysis from University College London has found that the proportion of people who develop dementia as they age is increasing, whereas it was previously thought to be falling, meaning previous projections underestimated future cases.
The combination of an aging population – and a higher percentage of older people who develop dementia – means that the number of cases is expected to rise even more than expected over the next twenty years.
Lead researcher Yuntao Chen, from University College London, called the results “shocking.”
“We are very concerned that we have found that cases of dementia are likely to increase significantly. The pressure on health and social care could be enormous,” he said. I.
“Not only will this have a devastating impact on the lives of those affected, but it will also place a significantly greater burden on health and social care than current forecasts predict.
“We suspect that the obesity epidemic (the prevalence of obesity among adults rose rapidly between 1975 and 2000) may have contributed to the increased incidence of dementia among younger groups of older adults.”
“This is the first study to show that the incidence of dementia is no longer falling and that we may be underestimating future cases of dementia.”
Hilary Evans, chief executive of Alzheimer’s Research UK, which was not involved in the study, said: “This news highlights the enormous threat that dementia poses both to society and to our already overstretched healthcare workers.
“As these figures show, unless urgent action is taken, dementia will become a huge and growing burden on our health system and destroy the future prospects of millions of people.”
Previous studies based on data up to 2010 found that the proportion of older adults who develop dementia fell by 28.8 percent between 2002 and 2008.
Based on this trend, the number of people with dementia was previously forecast to rise by 57 percent from 0.77 million in 2016 to 1.2 million in 2040 due to an aging population – according to a widely respected authoritative study published in the BMJ treasure trove.
But a new study published in the journal Public Health Lancetindicates that the proportion of people developing dementia in England and Wales began to rise again after 2008 – by 25.2 percent between 2008 and 2016.
As a result, the estimate has been recalculated, and researchers believe the number could be as high as 1.7 million.
The researchers examined nine waves of data on people over 50 living in private households in England between 2002 and 2019 from the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA). They also found that differences in dementia prevalence increased between educational groups.
James White, head of national advocacy organization the Alzheimer’s Association, said: “The statistics from this Lancet Public Health study are a stark reminder that without action, the individual and economic devastation caused by dementia will not stop.”
Professor Dag Aarsland, from King’s College London, said: “Despite recent positive results suggesting that the incidence of new-onset dementia is falling, this well-designed study shows that this initial decline has been reversed and the incidence is rising again.”
“These results should serve as a call to action for the public and researchers to step up efforts to find ways to prevent dementia. “It is possible, but it requires a huge amount of effort,” he said.
Scientists behind the new UCL study said they did not include data on obesity levels in their study and did not look at the potential of weight-loss drugs such as Wegovy to reduce obesity levels. Instead, they based their analysis on trends in the number and prevalence of dementia in the UK population in recent years.
While weight-loss drugs show promise, it is unclear how effective they will be in the long term and whether they will have a significant impact on obesity rates in the UK.
The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (Nice) notes that Wegovy should only be available to around 35,000 people through specialist weight management services, mainly based in hospitals, although the government is exploring how these drugs could be made available to more people through expansion specialized weight management services outside of hospitals.
In contrast, more than 850,000 people in England and Wales are expected to have dementia by 2040. This is based on the fact that the total number of people with dementia is expected to increase by 850,000 over this period, while tens of thousands of people currently suffering from dementia will have died by then – so the number of new cases will be significant higher than 850,000.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said: “We want to ensure that every person with dementia receives high-quality, compassionate care, regardless of age, gender or background.” . through increased funding, collaboration and the use of emerging technologies.
“We are committing £160 million a year to dementia research by 2024-25 to accelerate the development of the latest treatments and technologies, and our Key Conditions Strategy not only recognizes but sets out the importance of tackling this disease. Standards that patients should expect. Stages of treatment for dementia.
“Our £570 million Market Sustainability and Improvement Fund (MSIF) workforce fund will increase adult social care capacity, improve market resilience and enable local authorities to make significant improvements to adult social care.”
Source: I News
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