Experts warn that the number of new Covid cases may have dropped over the past two weeks, but the new option means we are likely to see a spike in infections next month.
Daily symptomatic infections in the UK were down 15% to 223,428 in the 12 days to Monday, according to the Zoe Health Study, still higher than during most of the pandemic, but moving in the right direction.
However, a new sub-variant of omicron, thought to have originated in or around New York State and quickly spread throughout the United States, is starting to gain momentum here.
The new variant, known as XBB.1.5 and nicknamed the Kraken, means the recent downfalls in the UK could soon be reversed.
According to preliminary data, although this is not yet a cause for panic, XBB.1.5 is expected to significantly exacerbate the Covid situation.
Preliminary research suggests that it is fundamentally more contagious than the currently dominant variant, Omicron BA.5 and its sub-series such as BQ.1, and does a better job of overcoming immunity created by vaccines and previous infections.
This is expected to result in a larger wave of infections than in the fall, when cases peaked at around 250,000 cases per day, but well below the previous record of 351,000 set in July.
The increase in cases is also likely to increase the number of serious infections and hospitalizations, experts said.
But the relatively good news is that XBB.1.5 does not appear to be more severe than BA.5 and therefore should not result in more infections becoming severe or leading to prolonged Covid.
Although, as with any emerging option, much is unclear and perceptions can change quickly – and data for the Christmas and New Year period can sometimes be misleading as there are fewer gatherings and people’s movements and behavior differ from the rest of the world. year may vary.
However, experts agree that XBB.1.5 is significantly more contagious than its predecessors and is likely to fuel the final wave of Covid.
Professor Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia notes that the new variant has risen from about 2% of Covid cases in the US in early December to 43% at Christmas when it began to spread in the UK. good about 2 percent of the time there.
The new sub-variant also accounted for 0.4% of Covid cases in Germany and 0.6% in Denmark and Canada at the time, according to CovSpectrum.
This variant has since risen again to about 4.5% of cases, according to the UKHSA.
The fact that it is gaining ground so quickly suggests that it is much more contagious, which suggests a “growth advantage” that puts it on the path to becoming the new dominant sub-variety in many parts of the world.
“If a variant grows that fast in less than four weeks, that indicates a pretty big growth advantage. But from what I’ve heard, there’s no evidence that this variant causes more serious illness than before,” Professor Hunter said.
“So I think XBB.1.5 will cause a wave of infections in the UK? Pretty sure. Will it be higher than what we saw this fall? Probably.
“And will it lead to more hospitalizations and deaths? Possibly, but I doubt it will even come close to the levels we saw a year ago, and probably not too different from what we saw this fall.
“The problem is not so much that XXB.1.5 will crush the NHS. Certainly not by itself. But will it be a heavy burden on the NHS in addition to the flu? This is certainly a cause for concern,” he said.
As long as scientists keep a close eye on the new variant in the coming days and weeks, there’s no need to panic — at least not yet.
Professor François Balloux, Director of the Institute of Genetics at University College London, said: “The incidence of XXB.1.5 is expected to increase globally and account for a significant proportion of cases worldwide in the near future.
“Therefore, the number of cases in the UK could rise in the coming weeks. However, it remains doubtful that XBB.1.5 on its own will cause a huge wave, and is unlikely to cause the “deadliest wave of the pandemic” that some predict.”
Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick, will be keeping a close eye on the option. “There is no need to panic, but we must monitor the spread of this option,” he said.
Explaining what makes the sub-variant so portable, he says that several aspects of the other Omicron sub-variant have been taken and combined.
“This variant is the product of recombination — the fusion of two different BA.2 variants. A key mutation in XBB.1.5 (known as the F486P mutation) means that this variant can bypass the immune defenses of previous vaccinations and previous infections,” says Professor Yang.
“This mutation also increases the infectivity of the variant – it interacts more strongly with the ACE2 receptor. [Covid entry point to the cell] and therefore more easily penetrates the cells.
“But there is no evidence that XBB.1.5 causes more serious illness – it can only spread faster and inevitably reach more vulnerable people and cause serious illness in a select few.
“XBB.1.5 is likely to lead to a spike in infections in the UK, but previous Omicron infections and the launch of Autumn Booster should provide a good level of protection for most people.
What do scientists advise us? In general, as always.
“Vaccination remains the best protection, so it’s important to encourage people in the UK who are over 50 to get booster shots – and perhaps the government should extend this shot to people under 50,” said Prof Young.
“Other measures will also help, such as wearing masks in crowded, poorly ventilated areas and isolating if you have symptoms. This is a small wake-up call that shows that we cannot be complacent with Covid. We need to remain vigilant and conduct genomic surveillance so that we can monitor the distribution and impact of these and other variants,” he said.
Simon Williams of Swansea University added: “The UKHSA recommends wearing masks if you are not feeling well. This makes sense, but since it’s hard to tell if it’s Covid, the flu, or a cold without testing, ideally people should try to cut back on their contacts if they’re not feeling well.
“Returning to free testing, making a vaccine available to everyone and ensuring people can afford to work from home if they are unwell will help mitigate the damage to mitigate any new wave caused by the XBB.1.5 cut.”
Steve Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, said the calm attitude of UK and other governments has helped new options flourish.
“The ongoing evolution of Omicron sub-options is a direct result of the recognition of the unprecedented prevalence of infections in countries trying to live with the virus using vaccine-only strategies,” he said.
“We are being overtaken by the virus at an alarming rate and our failure to support immunization programs with effective protection and mitigation means we are seeing a new wave of Covid in the UK and around the world.
“It is critical that millions of vulnerable people remain unjustly imprisoned because we cannot act at the community level to bring the pandemic under control.
“Worse, the impact on our already underfunded NHS will be exacerbated by simultaneous outbreaks of influenza and other infections. The return of the SARS-CoV2 waves in 2022 shows no signs of abating, meaning the NHS has experienced multiple winters over the past 12 months, not just one – that’s downright unsustainable.”
Source: I News
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