Is covid over? For the first time in a year, the number of cases fell below 100,000

The number of Covid cases has fallen below 100,000 a day for the first time in more than a year, as a spate of infections over Christmas restored the country’s immunity, according to new data.

The figures show that the number of daily symptomatic infections in the UK has fallen by more than half this month, from 223,428 at the start of the year to 91,818 on Wednesday, according to the ZOE Health Survey.

And they are likely to fall even more in the coming weeks.

“I expect the number of cases to continue to fall and start to rise again at the end of February,” said Tim Spector, a professor at King’s College London who manages the ZOE app. I.

The current infection rate fell below 100,000 cases for the first time since December 2021, with daily cases exceeding that number through 2022 and into mid-January.

However, experts have warned that Covid is far from over. The number of cases is still high compared to the beginning of the pandemic that swept the UK in early 2020.

The daily number of infections remained below 100,000 until October 2021, although the infection in the early days was much more severe than it is today for most people.

The sharp drop in cases this month came as a surprise to experts, as it came earlier and steeper than many expected.

And that suggests that fears that a new, highly contagious sub-variant of Omicron, known as XBB.1.5, could stir things up in the coming weeks may have been exaggerated.

However, scientists say the outlook for the coming weeks is still unclear, and that XXXB1.5 could trigger a new surge in the spring.

They welcomed the quick demise of Covid but warned that the battle against the virus is far from over.

“This is certainly good news for everyone and for the NHS in particular,” said Steve Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds.

“The number of people who have been infected during past waves may have boosted our herd immunity to mitigate this inter-wave dip,” he said.

“This is all part of a long road to endemicity, but we are far from it – we need to slow the spread of the virus,” he said.

Although an endemic virus is constantly present in a community, it differs from a pandemic in that the virus is better controlled and does not spread uncontrollably.

Dr Griffin added: “It is important to remember that overall prevalence may reflect a general downward trend, but local and regional increases may still occur as a new variant becomes available. In addition, a sharp decline in the dominant species may mask the growth of an emerging variety in the early stages of its distribution,” he warned.

Professor François Balloux, Director of the Institute of Genetics at University College London, said: “XBB.1.5 currently affects about 10% of cases in the UK. Growth is slowing and is unlikely to significantly exceed 10 percent in the future.

“Definitely doesn’t look like XBB.1.5 will create a wave of its own. The panic over XBB.1.5 was never justified. It is one of several largely interchangeable Omicron strains currently in circulation,” he said.

Professor Carl Friston, a virus modeler at University College London, suggests that people were a little more careful this month to protect themselves after the triple whammy of colds, flu and Covid at Christmas may have played a role.

“Common sense dictates that when the flu is circulating, people will be more careful not to get infected,” he said.

“We expect that the number of cases will continue to decrease in the coming weeks, with the next peak predicted in a few weeks, on May 7,” he says.

Around 3.5% of the UK population is said to be infected with Covid at the moment – compared to around 5% at Christmas. He expects the biggest peak this year in November – about 4 percent – although he admits that it is extremely difficult to be absolutely sure in advance.

Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick, added: “It is difficult to predict, but we hope that the situation will stabilize in the coming weeks. However, a lot depends on the XBB.1.5’s ability to compete with the current hodgepodge of Omicron options circulating in the UK.”

Professor Spector says the drop in size we’ve seen this month, after a significant spike in cases like the one around Christmas, is not unusual.

Perhaps even more surprising, he says, is that we have not seen such a pattern during this pandemic, as one would expect from what usually happens with outbreaks of colds, flu and other viral infections.

“The recent drop in cases is part of an expected cycle of peaks and troughs in infections. This is a more normal pattern. It is strange that the previous waves did not fall so far.

Experts say this shift to a more normal picture could be another sign that Covid could become endemic.

At the more speculative end of the spectrum of explanations for why cases have dropped so much is the flu – and the idea that the high flu rates we’ve seen this winter may have at least helped lower Covid levels – though what an impact it has had. far from sure.

The basic idea is that flu and flu shots can in some cases protect people from Covid, although the sheer number of people who have had both this winter clearly shows that the effect is far from unanimous.

But experts say there may be something to this theory.

“There are some theories and limited evidence that infection with other viruses, such as the flu, can alleviate the symptomatic impact of Covid. This may be due to an innate immune response caused by a virus that protects against the effects of Covid infection,” said Prof Yang.

Professor Ballu added: “There is such a thing as ‘viral interference’, but it’s not well understood. A viral infection can temporarily increase the immune response to infection with other viruses.”

“The likely mechanism is increased production of interferons during the initial infection. Interferons are part of the innate immune response and can essentially fight any pathogen because such an enhanced interferon response can provide temporary protection against various viruses after an initial infection,” he said.

Not that it was always a good thing, Professor Ballu warned.

“However, viral intervention is not always good, and there are situations where an initial infection makes the host more susceptible to a subsequent one.”

Evidence for enhancing effects is still limited, experts say, but there are a few studies that suggest there might be something to it.

A study published last May by Cornell University in Qatar concluded that “recent influenza vaccination is associated with a significant reduction in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the severity of COVID-19.”

This study, which included more than 30,000 people, found that those who received a flu shot were nearly 90 percent less likely to develop severe Covid in the coming months than those who had not recently had a flu shot.
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In another study published in September led by the Frankfurt University. Goethe and with the participation of the University of Kent, concluded: “Omicron infection protects cells from superinfection with influenza A virus.”