Covid cases are rising across the UK, with the latest wave almost peaking after Christmas gatherings, a leading virus modeler has predicted.
Infection rates have risen sharply in recent weeks, doubling to around 2.5 million in the first half of December, when around 4.3 per cent of the population was infected, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
Covid cases are expected to rise sharply since then as JN.1, a new highly contagious dominant subvariant, spreads rapidly, increasing the proportion of new infections in the UK to 48 per cent by December 23, making it the largest strain. in the country. .
After Christmas, when people spend extended periods of time together indoors, cases are expected to continue to rise for at least the next few days, according to Professor Karl Friston, a virus modeller at University College London.
His calculations show that the peak of cases will be in late December or early January, with the most likely time being Saturday, December 30.
“The next peak in prevalence is expected to occur in the coming days, around December 30,” Professor Friston said. I.
“The increase in prevalence is in line with the expected peak after Christmas.”
The holiday season often sees an increase in illness as people interact more with each other and the cold encourages the growth of viruses while weakening our defenses.
There are also concerns about waning Covid immunity as large parts of the population have not been vaccinated for at least a year and infection rates have been at lower levels in recent months.
So scientists fear that most of these cases this year could be more severe than last year.
Vaccination is particularly effective at preventing serious illness in infected people, but also reduces the risk of infection.
An increased risk of severe illness also increases the risk of developing a long bout of Covid-19, as severe cases are more likely to develop the disease.
Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick, said: “We continue to face new Covid variants which are unpredictable and, together with the inevitable increase in mixing over the Christmas period, increase the risk of a sudden rise in infections.” face the usual winter difficulties.”
Professor Steve Griffin, from the University of Leeds, said slower growth rates this winter were “worrisome and we are likely to see simultaneous waves of Covid and RSV again”. [common cold] and flu, which will put enormous pressure on the NHS.”
He added: “In the UK we are making things even more difficult by limiting the availability of second vaccinations to people over 65 and a very limited group of vulnerable or otherwise eligible people.”
“Without continued widespread vaccination, coupled with appropriate measures such as improving indoor air quality, we will continue to face waves of infections for the foreseeable future.”
Scientists say infections, which stood at 4.3 percent of the population in mid-December, could surpass a peak of 5.8 percent in July 2022 during the New Year’s surge.
This means infections in the UK could reach their highest level since record levels in spring 2022, although it is unclear how many cases there will be during the current peak.
Source: I News
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