Covid cases could hit a new record in mid-January after the highly contagious JN.1 subvariant became the dominant strain at Christmas.
Infections in the UK will continue to rise for another week or two and could “match” and “even exceed” the country’s two biggest Covid waves in early 2022, according to data scientist Professor Christina Pagel from University College London.
The rate of JN.1 rose from 1 percent of Covid cases in the UK at the end of October to 5 percent in mid-November.
Then, the number of species rose to 51.4 percent at Christmas, making it three times more common than the next largest species, according to the latest data from the CovSpectrum database.
The rapid rise has caused the UK’s biggest Covid wave in at least a year, and likely nearly two, scientists say.
And the number of cases in Britain could reach a record high later this month, four years after the virus first entered the country.
Professor Pagel compared the course of JN.1 with other previous dominant Covid variants and concluded that the current wave had not yet peaked.
“JN.1 just became dominant. The waves of infection caused by Omicron BA.1 (December 2021 and January 22) and BA.5 (July 2022) peaked almost three weeks after reaching 50 percent of sequenced cases,” she said. I.
“And BA.2 – the biggest wave ever recorded in England in March and April 2022 – peaked four weeks after infection rates reached 50 per cent.
“Unfortunately, it is likely that this wave of JN.1 has not yet peaked and will peak in mid-January, next week or the week after. And then the incidence will remain very high for several more weeks, even in a downward direction. I am confident that this wave will match the first two waves of Omicron and perhaps even surpass them in 2022.”
But she added: “I don’t think hospitalizations will be as high as they were in the first two waves of Omicron.”
Professor Steve Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, said: “There has clearly been a huge increase in Covid cases in recent weeks. This is undoubtedly due to the pleasant atmosphere indoors during the holidays. It is also likely that the return of schools, universities and businesses in the new year will prolong this.”
Asked if the UK could record a new record this month, he said: “Yes, I think we’ll see something like that.” [the current record wave] BA2 appeared.”
Swansea University’s Simon Williams said the current wave of Covid will peak and trough “possibly significantly” this month.
“Current data shows how hospital admissions have increased over the Christmas week and it is likely that Covid cases will rise again when the UKHSA releases new data,” he said. “However, Covid remains unpredictable and it remains to be seen whether we will see a sharp or more gradual decline.”
Professor Karl Friston, a virus modeller at University College London, previously estimated that cases would peak in late December or early January, “around Saturday 30 December”.
“The acid test will be the next peak in hospitalization. The daily number of hospitalized Covid patients is expected to peak next week at around 700 admissions per day – the same number of admissions as the peak in October this year. But if the next peak is higher or later, there may be cause for concern,” Professor Friston said.
The latest ONS and UKHSA winter infection survey, published on December 21, found that 2.54 million people had Covid as of December 13, more than double the number at the start of the month.
Infections are expected to rise sharply since then as people spend time together at Christmas and the virus thrives in cold conditions.
The UKHSA’s next flu and Covid report on Thursday is expected to give a clearer picture of just how high infection rates are.
“It’s difficult to say where we are at this peak until we see more data later this week,” Professor Griffin said.
The announcement will also provide a clearer picture of flu cases, which have also risen rapidly in the run-up to Christmas.
Source: I News
With a background in journalism and a passion for technology, I am an experienced writer and editor. As an author at 24 News Reporter, I specialize in writing about the latest news and developments within the tech industry. My work has been featured on various publications including Wired Magazine and Engadget.