Covid cases up 50% in 10 days as new highly contagious octopus subvariant sweeps UK

Covid cases have risen nearly 50 percent in 10 days as a new highly contagious octopus subvariant sweeps the country.

This omicron sub-variant doubled its share of Covid cases in the UK in the first two weeks of January, accounting for 11 percent of new infections as of January 16, according to GISAID data.

And if it follows the same path as the US, its home country, its share will rise to about 40 percent by Sunday, the data show.

In the US, Kraken, officially known as XBB.1.5, went from 12 percent to 42 percent of cases in just three weeks.

The faster a new variant increases its share of infections, the more contagious it is and the more likely it is to fuel a new wave of virus.

The rapid rise in infections in the UK over the past week has come at the same time that the number of cases has more than halved in the first three weeks of January.

Hopes have been raised that the UK may experience a period of lower infection rates and that XBB.1.5 may not spread as rapidly as initially feared.

At that point, nine days ago, the number of daily symptomatic cases had fallen below 100,000 to just over 85,000 for the first time in more than a year.

Since then, however, they have risen 45 percent to 123,265 on Saturday, according to the latest data from the ZOE Health Survey.

Professor Danny Altmann of Imperial College London is concerned that XBB.1.5, which is believed to have originated in New York, is behind the recent surge.

Not only is it more contagious than previous variants, it is also better able to evade immunity created by vaccines and previous infections due to differences in composition.

“I am concerned that with XBB.1.5 we have another increase in tolerance and immunity evasion, and that our smug reliance on established immunity may be misplaced,” he said. “We are still in uncharted territory.”

He is concerned that the public is failing to appreciate the threat Covid still poses and would like more action to be taken to prevent the spread of the virus.

“We have a country where the absorption from the last round of boosters was bad in the 1950s, so we have a country with a rapidly declining defense. The situation in China reminds us that infection with omicron subvariants in a poorly immunized population is far from easy,” he said.

Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick, added: “We can expect fluctuations in Covid infections due to the spread of more contagious variants such as XBB.1.5.

“There is also the impact of weakened immunity, especially since only 64.5% of people over 50 have received a fall shot.”

The number of cases, although rising rapidly, is not expected to be as high as during last year’s two peaks, when the daily number of infections reached 350,000, leaving about 5.5 percent of the population at one point.

Meanwhile, Professor Carl Friston, a virus modeller at University College London, believes “we have just reached the bottom of the current surge and cases will start to rise again.”

He said: “These fluctuations, peaking every few months, are what we can expect over the next year or so.”

Professor Friston’s simulation predicts that the next peak will be at the end of March. At that point, about 3.5% of the UK population would have been sick with Covid.

While XBB.1.5 is considered the key to Covid’s rise, experts say spikes are rarely associated with just one factor.

Steve Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, believes a return to school and work after Christmas could also play a role – an effect that can sometimes take weeks to get through the system.

“I would be surprised if prevalence didn’t increase with the return to schools and work, especially given the current inactivity,” he said.

Professor Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia added: “Putting the blame on any one option is too easy. The rise and fall in the number of infections will always be the result of a complex interaction of many factors: the evolution of the virus, the decline in immunity, behavioral factors and environmental factors.”

Cases also remain high due to a lack of general ignorance that Covid numbers remain so high.

A survey conducted last week by Swansea and Cardiff Metropolitan University found that the majority of people with Covid symptoms are largely acting as usual, taking few precautions to avoid spreading the virus to others.

Only one in six adults with respiratory symptoms were tested to determine if it was Covid, a cold or the flu, according to a survey conducted in December and January — they all share similar symptoms.

It showed that only one in ten wore a mask and the same number were isolated, while only one in twenty sought medical help.

Confusion about symptoms, combined with more cold and flu winters, has led many people with respiratory illnesses to believe it’s not Covid – while the end of free testing amid a livelihood crisis meant few people were getting tested to find out, the researchers said.

The number of Covid infections continued to decline in England, Wales and Scotland in the week ending January 17, 2023 and in Northern Ireland in the week ending January 14, 2023, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics.

They are consistent with the ZOE figures, which also showed a decline over this period, but they are more timely than the ONS figures and the showcases are now rising again.