A highly contagious new variant of Covid ‘Kraking’ will dominate in a few weeks as cases rise in the UK.

Analysis shows the Kraken Covid sub-variant is spreading so fast that it is likely to become the dominant strain in the UK by the end of the month.

It was first identified in the UK in December, according to Covid-19 Genomics UK or COG-UK, and has been rising rapidly, accounting for 11% of new infections as of 21 January.

And it is believed that since then it has spread widely.

The sub-variant, officially known as XBB.1.5, is causing a surge in Covid infections in the UK, where symptomatic daily cases rose 58% in two weeks – to 134,116 on Monday, according to the ZOE health survey – though that’s not the case. This does not explain the overall increase in infections, which may also depend on factors such as changes in immunity and people’s behavior.

The rapid growth of the Kraken sub-variant is expected to continue in the coming weeks, with it dominating the UK by the end of February.

According to the latest SARS-CoV-2_variant report by Basel University’s Neherlab, octopuses originated in New York and have since spread across the US and Europe.

“If the time doubling trend around 10 days continues, XBB.1.5 is expected to dominate Europe by the end of February,” said Richard Neher of Neherlab, suggesting that UK dominance will be even faster as a result of a more established there than on the mainland .

“XBB.1.5 is already dominant on the East Coast of the United States and is expected to be so in the rest of the United States by mid-February,” he said.

“In Europe, XBB.1.5 accounts for 1 to 5 percent of sequences in samples collected in the first week of the new year, and just over 5 percent in the UK.”

When this variant spread across New York State in December, Dr. Neher said the Kraken’s gradual shift in portability over the more established Omicron variants was similar to what was seen when Delta quickly replaced Alpha in 2021.

“The doubling per week compared to the average number of variants circulating is still noticeable and is at the level of delta compared to alpha,” he said at the time.

It is not clear at this point if the number of cases will approach or even exceed the two highest peaks of around 350,000 daily symptomatic infections reported in the UK over the past year.

This is because the population has developed a high level of immunity to previous infections and vaccines – while other factors such as behavior and weather may also play a role in infection rates – warmer, drier conditions outside are likely to reduce levels inside. contact between people.

The scientists said they were concerned about the spread of XBB.1.5.

“XBB.1.5 dominance by the end of February seems highly likely,” says Professor Danny Altmann of Imperial College London, who describes the sub-variant as “eerily transmissible and relatively immune-evading.”

Professor Altmann added: “Now we are very accustomed to the fact that sub-options come up quite quickly when they take over. We’re still in uncharted territory, but patterns are getting harder to predict.

“This is due to an interaction between a frighteningly contagious and relatively immune-evading variant and a population that appears to have some level of immunity, at least for now.

“I say so far because we are in a pretty dangerous moment for a number of reasons. The response to the 4th booster was ultimately poor, with the exception of the older group, in which the booster program has already ended and most of the population is a few months away from the last dose and will be in sharp decline.

Steve Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, said: “The concern with XBB1.5 is that it has both a transmissibility advantage and an antibody evasion advantage. Thus, we can observe a rapid spread among another new vulnerable part of the population.

“There are also concerns about what could be the next option after XBB1.5 as the virus shows no signs of slowing down. If we continue to allow unrestricted distribution and viral diversity, we will continue to see ripples, that’s all.”

Simon Williams of Swansea University is concerned that people are so debilitated by the pandemic that it is unlikely many will take preventive measures, such as isolating or wearing masks, as cases rise.

“It looks like the XXB.1.5 will soon become the dominant option in Europe,” he said.

“There is a lot of ‘variant fatigue’, many, but not all, are not keeping up with the development of new variants. So we most likely won’t see a change in behavior as XBB.1.5 or whatever variant becomes more dominant.

“While the frequent mini-waves we are seeing now are thankfully not as acute as the early waves, there is still a cumulative burden on health services over time and a significant public health burden, including as a result of protracted Covid- nineteen. 19 crisis. and for the economy due to Covid-related occupational illness.”

Prof Christina Pagel of University College London believes that the number of cases is unlikely to return to previous highs and is likely to reach levels seen in October and December, when the daily number of symptomatic infections ranged from 150,000 to 250,000, according to ZOE data. .

“If we get a wave, then it will most likely be October and December, and not the ultra-high peaks of January and March last year. And peak hospitalizations have slowly declined with each wave over the past year, so hopefully that trend will continue,” she said.

And it is unlikely that the octopus will reach the same level of dominance as at the beginning of the pandemic, when the proportion of dominant variants in infections was close to 100 percent.

“In the last few waves, options haven’t really come close to 100 percent because the ever-changing Omicron soup is spawning new sub-variants that outnumber the current dominant version,” she said.