US intelligence officials remain convinced that the first alleged Chinese spy balloon shot down this month was intended to monitor important military installations, although three that have since been blown up by military aircraft appear “harmless.” If this turns out to be the case, what exactly did he do and how?
This is what the FBI is trying to figure out after recovering parts of a crashed balloon from the Atlantic, including “all identified priority sensors and electronic parts.”
But from the information that has surfaced so far, security analysts are increasingly convinced that it was intended to intercept communications or read US radar systems, and not for aerial photography, although this too cannot be ruled out.
“It’s definitely elint or sigint,” the doctor said. Christian Gustafson, Deputy Director of the Brunel Center for Intelligence and Security Studies, a west London think tank that studies spy services and their role in government.
For those unfamiliar with spy terminology, Sigint is “information derived from electronic signals and systems used by foreign targets, such as communication systems, radars, and weapons systems, that provide our country with an important window into foreign capabilities, actions, and intentions.” . “Opponents make bets.” According to the US National Security Agency.
Elint is a subsection of it and deals with “information derived primarily from electronic signals that do not contain speech or text (considered comint).”
The appointment of a spy balloon, the doctor explains. Gustafson, may be to assess “how radar is picking it up and what other US electronic systems are targeting it.”
“It’s what in the military you would call a ‘wobbly amp’,” he says. I. “You can see where all the radars are, you can see what bandwidth they are in, their frequencies… It makes sense when you are trying to design a stealth aircraft or trying to figure out where the hole in the radar housing is. “something might work.”
He says the US has often used regular aircraft for this. “We call it a ferret. You fly past the air defense zone of a country like China, and then enter its airspace or come very close and exit again. Since you have entered the air defense zone of this state, they will shine their radars on you and collect all this juicy stuff.
Sean O’Connor, chief satellite imagery analyst at Defense Consulting Janes, agrees. Since the first balloon appeared to be “stuffed with antennas”, this suggests signaling, which may also include the capture of secret messages.
In this case, he argues, “A balloon is not the dumbest thing in the world. It puts you between someone on the floor trying to communicate with someone else.
“When they use satellite communications, this signal is picked up and transmitted to someone on the ground. If you have a balloon with a bunch of signal-collecting devices placed above where these people are talking, you can intercept those signals,” he says. I.
Of course, you would expect all of these military communications to be encrypted. But “signal intelligence isn’t just about what people say,” the doctor says. Gustafson. “It’s also about who talks to whom, how often, and from where.”
However, much of this information could have been collected through less suspicious methods. “Frankly, the Chinese could put airliners with electronic intelligence capabilities in the cargo hold and fly over the US – and who would know better?”
If that were the case, the use of the balloon might have another advantage—for a different purpose.
The first balloon flew close to US missile bases and also attempted to track experiments with new weapons, such as tracking “the launch profile of a missile system or a missile system in a test flight.” He explains that this “telemetry” could be: “How fast is it growing? How is it up?
Mr. O’Connor goes to great lengths to point out that these spy targets and intelligence technologies “are nothing new. Nothing special”. Maybe for political reasons, or maybe just because of passion and fear of a topic that most of us, including many politicians, have little idea about, “it just annoys people now.”
As British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said last week: “The balloon was at 90,000 feet, which is uncontrolled airspace and technically anyone can fly there.” [altitude] over every country. If China can do it at 90,000 feet, Britain can do it, France, Belgium can do it. It’s a balloon with something hanging on it.”
He added: “We all have satellites. Is it true that a Chinese satellite was probably orbiting Britain and following us? I think so. Is it true that the British satellite looked at other countries? Yes.”
Since many countries have used satellites to spy on competitors for decades, there are also well-established methods of hiding or protecting state secrets on the ground and securing communications that can work just as well as with balloons.
At the most basic level, Mr. O’Connor says, “Information gathering can be influenced by reducing or avoiding activities of interest, although this must be done for operational reasons.
“It is also possible to use fake targets like dummies or generate fake signals to mask the capture sensors. Cover-up attempts can also be used to cover up activities such as setting up bomb shelters or performing certain activities in hangars.”
The Air Force can also hope that “distorting color schemes” will help hide the design and details of classified new aircraft, he says, using the Lockheed F-117 Nighthawk as an example.
When this very unusual stealth bomber, instantly recognizable by its peculiar angular shape, was used for test flights in the mysterious Area 51 in Nevada in the 1980s, it was painted in sandy brown and lime green camouflage.
“Part of the reason the first F-117 prototype looked so ridiculously weird with its multicolored livery was because they were thinking about watching from above. That’s why they flew at night.”
He adds, “Systems such as directed energy weapons can also be used to blind or dazzle optical sensors, and jammers can be used to jam data transmission or receive signals from a satellite or other control.”
While experts are trying to figure out what the balloon did, it can be just as difficult to figure out who is responsible for the decision to use it and what to fly in it, the doctor says. Gustafson.
“It is not correct to assume that President Xi knew this was happening and gave such an order… It could have been the People’s Liberation Army, which did it only because they thought no one would notice… It is not uncommon in authoritarian states that there is a militant electorate inside there is a government.
Both analysts are relatively calm about the potential impact of this controversy. They also do not believe that the UK will become a prime target for aerial surveillance by the Chinese government, although the Chinese government has raised concerns about the UK’s defenses after the government admitted that it was “possible” that someone was flying over the UK. Other experts consider it important not to overdo it.
But Dr. Gustafson believes political anger and unease over the alleged spy balloon points to a broader trend toward worsening relations between the US and its allies, including the UK, with China.
“We have a hostile relationship with China. In the next five years, the situation can only worsen. The biggest impact of this sort of thing on the average person will probably not be spy balloons overhead – it will be a dip in the flood of cheap consumer goods coming in here.
The recent warning about the use of Chinese surveillance cameras by British police and the risk that Beijing could use the technology to spy on the UK is just the latest worry, he says after reports of mobile phone data collection. TikTok video app and Irevelations about a tracking device found in a government car. Sir Alex Younger, former head of MI6, said the government needed to “realize” China’s actions.
“The response of states to this will not necessarily be decided solely by the game of security education,” says the doctor. Gustafson. “These are countries that are starting to say no, we are not going to buy Chinese electronics for nothing, this is government regulation… The global free trade system that we built with Covid in the 80s will gradually collapse, which means expensive . Common consumption goods”.
Twitter: @robustings
Source: I News
With a background in journalism and a passion for technology, I am an experienced writer and editor. As an author at 24 News Reporter, I specialize in writing about the latest news and developments within the tech industry. My work has been featured on various publications including Wired Magazine and Engadget.