A new wave of Covid cases has swept the UK after cases rose nearly 75 per cent in less than two weeks.
This is thought to be caused by increased socialization now that spring has arrived, reduced immunity to vaccines and previous infections, and a new sub-variant of Omicron called XXB.1.9.1.
It’s not much of a concern to scientists right now, but it spreads faster than other strains, suggesting it’s more easily transmitted and is a factor in the rise in Covid cases.
The surge is fueled by children, as is usually the case with a new wave – the number of cases among those under 17 doubles in two weeks.
Children pass it on to each other at school before passing it on to their families and the older age groups they come into contact with.
A lack of precautions, such as wearing a mask and isolating when symptoms appear, is also believed to be behind the upsurge, as the government and the public increasingly act as if the pandemic is over, scientists say.
“This doesn’t really surprise me. We hear very little about Covid at the moment, which leads to the erroneous assumption that the pandemic is over and we don’t need to worry about protective measures,” said Prof Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick.
“But it’s still important to know how the infection spreads and be aware of close mixing in poorly ventilated areas,” he said.
Daily symptomatic cases in the UK rose by 74% from 78,660 on March 9 to 136,722 on March 20, according to the ZOE Health Study.
By March 21, the number of cases had dropped to 111,241, but Tim Spector, a professor at King’s College London who works with the ZOE app, said the general trend is: “The stakes are going up – I wouldn’t put too much into the daily Read in Changes” .
Professor Carl Friston, the creator of virus models from University College London, agrees with him.
“The main reason for this surge – according to our models – is the increase in contact frequency as spring approaches. This increase is based on our behavior as measured by data from Google Mobility and the Department of Transportation over the past two years.”
“The next peak in incidence is expected at the end of March 2023, when about 3.5% of the UK population will be infected.”
By comparison, about 7% of the UK population was infected at some point during last year’s record May and about 3% now and over Christmas, he says.
While it’s not recommended to read too much about daily changes, experts will be watching the numbers closely over the next few days to see if Tuesday’s drop (the last day for which data is available) is indeed the peak of wave markers. as expected, the number of cases will continue to rise next week.
The latest surge has seen the number of cases the highest since mid-December and nearly the highest since July last year.
But they are still well below last summer’s peak of around 200,000 and are likely to remain so, experts predict, as larger but rarer waves are replaced by smaller, more frequent waves.
And cases are well below last spring’s record of 300,000. But they are at an all-time high until December 2021 – almost two years after the pandemic began.
This month, the UK Health and Safety Agency said it was monitoring XBB.1.9.1 at a technical briefing on “options of concern”.
“XBB.1.9.1 is growing relatively fast and is currently the only line with a significant growth advantage over XBB.1.5, albeit with a small number identified,” it said.
According to the GISAID database, the proportion of infections caused by the new sub-variant XBB.1.9.1 in the UK increased from 6 percent on 21 February to 15 percent on 3 March. faster than other Covid sub-variants in circulation, such as XBB.1.5, which is currently the most common sub-variant.
For now, however, experts do not think the new sub-option could have a big impact on Covid rates in the UK.
“It has a slight growth advantage over XBB.1.5, but not too much,” said Professor François Balloux, director of the UCL Institute of Genetics.
While XBB.1.9.1 may not be significantly more transmissible than some of the other sub-variants currently in existence, they generally bypass the immunity we’ve built up through vaccination and past infections quite well, the scientists say.
“The main cause of new infections remains the evasion of the virus by antibodies, as well as a significant number of vulnerable people arising from weakened immunity,” said Steve Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds.
“The ZOE figures imply that the infection is likely to be widespread in the school environment and then passed on to families. The poor vaccine protection of our children is simply outrageous,” he added.
“While behavior is not the main cause of these waves of infection, we can still take steps to mitigate their impact. Improved ventilation, the use of properly fitted filter masks in high-risk scenarios, testing and isolation support if you feel unwell can all help prevent the spread of this virus. In particular, little has been done to establish basic environmental protection in schools, even now in the fourth year of this pandemic,” he said.
Simon Williams of Swansea University said: “I think we’re seeing what life with Covid is like with very little protective behavior: wearing face masks and self-testing has pretty much disappeared and probably won’t make much of a difference. partial return.
“While fortunately the waves are not as high as they were at the start of the pandemic, we are also not seeing lows and so there are still cases of prolonged Covid and sick leave accumulating over time. “.
Source: I News
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