The risks to British security posed by a second presidency of Donald Trump could become a major factor in the general election and prompt Rishi Sunak to call a vote later this year, a former minister has warned.
Both the Prime Minister and Sir Keir Starmer will question how they would deal with a Trump White House that could scale back US commitments to NATO and Ukraine, according to former justice secretary Sir David Lidington.
But preparations for elections here will reduce time for emergency planning, he warned.
The potential threat of a rift between Western powers if Trump is elected could be a political advantage for the incumbent prime minister, said Sir David, who also served as foreign secretary for NATO and Europe.
Trump’s victory could be used by the Tories to raise concerns about ongoing weaknesses among Labor MPs on defense policy, he said. IIts former leader Jeremy Corbyn called on the West to stop arming Ukraine.
The former Tory MP said: “If Trump appears to have a strong chance of winning, should Rishi hold a general election in the UK after the US election, or campaign here during the US election? ”
“How [he] You could try to put it this way: “Stay experienced, now is not the time to take risks in world affairs with someone completely unknown, plus the track record of the Labor Party under Corbyn.”
Sir David, now chairman of defense think tank Rus, said it was important for leaders to consider the impact of Trump’s views and actions on the UK after three senior veteran diplomats warned last week of “enormous” security risks.
Sir Peter Westmacott, the former British ambassador to the US, said election campaigns taking place simultaneously on both sides of the Atlantic could influence candidates and voters here.
“Trumpri will be everywhere,” he said. I. “There will be all sorts of populist nonsense. “Trump will say what he wants to get attention and headlines, and there will be some pressure on British candidates to respond.”
Leaders of both parties will be wary of criticizing Trump despite his controversial record and many of his policies being at odds with Britain’s foreign interests, Sir David said. “Both major parties will have leadership-level concerns about whether Trump 2 will pose significant additional risks to NATO cohesion, especially for Ukraine.
“Both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition will consider the question: ‘What arguments would I use if I were dealing with Trump?’ But they won’t talk about it publicly.”
“Both Sunak and Starmer, if Trump is elected, will be looking to build the best working relationship with him because that’s what every British prime minister should do.”
“If you look at the Labor Party, what’s quite interesting is that I don’t think Starmer or any of their senior team made any allegations against Trump. During the uprising, yes. But they start to look at things and think: maybe in a year or two we’ll be dealing with this guy from number 10.”
He believes the government has “taken action” to prevent Trump from defeating Joe Biden in November, and the British ambassador to the US is already working on the issue.
“They will have Karen Pierce and her team in Washington work on the Trump campaign and try to establish a good working relationship and identify people who can be selected as key members of the Cabinet – the secretary of state, the head of the Pentagon, especially the Homeland Security staff. Advisor.
British officials are preparing a secret dossier on how Trump may have “thrown a giant grenade into global geopolitics,” Whitehall sources say.
Here’s what the insider said I“There will be a lot of people in the State Department who are planning this, and I suspect they will say, ‘We screwed up last time, we didn’t take the prospect of Trump being elected seriously enough in 2016.’
But as politicians on all sides prepare to vote here, leaders may not find the time they would ideally like to devote to the Trump issue, Sir David said.
“They won’t be able to devote hours or even days to thinking strategically about this issue because it’s an election year. They both still have a lot to do… I know what these days are like.”
However, he expects domestic factors to outweigh concerns about US policy when planning for the UK general election.
“When will the Bank of England meet to discuss interest rates? Will this be in the midst of an election campaign? When do certain statistics appear and do we believe that they will help or harm us? He said.
“When it comes to a tactical decision about the exact week in which the election date will be set, these will be the most important considerations. The US elections will be part of this, but only part.”
There have been calls for Britain and its European partners to increase weapons production if the Trump administration cuts US military commitments to defend the continent in the event of further Russian incursions.
British ammunition stocks are low because they were used to supply Ukraine, which is now having to ration ammunition as it fights Vladimir Putin’s invasion.
But arms makers such as BAE Systems will find it difficult to expand production at scale without a long-term commitment from Westminster, Sir David warned.
“Europe’s current failure to jointly engage in the strategic expansion of its defense industrial capabilities is a serious problem.
“If you talk to defense industry executives, they’ll say, ‘We’ll be happy to build new factories, invest in machines and get production going, but we need a guarantee that there will be business.’ It will be 15 years. up to twenty years old.”
“You can’t do it on the basis that the government says, ‘We want to use this to fund Ukraine for the next two years and then we’ll think about it.’
He called on European allies to plan together and share the burden: “Each of the major European powers will not be able to finance increases in all areas of defense production and technology.”