The delivery of main battle tanks to Ukraine would raise the geopolitical temperature, but the Kremlin would be “very unwise” to strike targets outside of Ukraine, the former army commander warned.
US officials announced yesterday that they will supply 31 M1 Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine after Germany reached an agreement to supply 14 Leopard 2 tanks, which it claims are “the best main battle tanks in the world.” The permit also allowed Leopards to be exported to other NATO countries, including Poland.
Russia called the move “an outright provocation.” Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously warned of the possibility of nuclear retaliation for Western intervention in the conflict.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said the tanks would arrive at the end of March, giving hope that they would be ready for the upcoming Russian offensive in the spring.
Former Army Commander General Lord Richard Dannatt I that while tank donations would raise the geopolitical temperature, the goal was simply to help Ukraine defend its territory, not threaten the Kremlin.
“Yes, there will be an escalation of tensions [between Russia and the West]. But it is important that we understand our messages absolutely correctly. The reason we are doing what we are doing is to allow Ukraine to take back all of its territory, that international law allows it to occupy every last square kilometer, including Crimea,” he said.
“But we are not going to go further. There is no intention to attack Russia or belittle it. Our goal is strategic, namely to give Ukraine the ability to control its sovereign territory.
“It would be very unwise for Russia to attack targets outside of Ukraine. There is no excuse for this.”
While it is “possible” for Western countries to be targeted by Russia, “the goal is simply to rid Ukraine of Russian forces.”
“It’s not wider,” said Lord Dannat. “And we have to keep saying this so that Russia makes it clear that we have no desire to weaken or destroy Russia, but it is quite legitimate that we discourage them from further incursions into other countries.”
Dr Marina Miron, a defense studies expert at King’s College London, said Russia’s escalation threats were “mostly rhetorical” and that the Kremlin “didn’t really consider attacking any NATO member.”
However, she warned that Putin might consider launching low-yield nuclear strikes instead, escalating his disinformation as a weapon. “I think that real ICBMs with nuclear warheads are practically out of the question,” she said. I. “Russia also does not want an escalation. They may threaten to do so, but they will try to achieve as much as possible… as much as possible in Ukraine. We cannot rule out such a possibility, but we must take it with a grain of salt.”
Dr. Miron said she expects Russia to “intensify its information war” now.
“They will try to exploit the existing tensions in European countries and they have done it,” she said. “They think they can’t win militarily, but they can play the long game and undermine democracies with this propaganda and misinformation. What they are doing is raising and amplifying existing problems and distorting facts, and this is a real weapon for the Russians, including the military, against the West, ”she said.
Colonel Tim Collins, a former British Army officer, said it is unlikely that Putin will try to attack NATO countries, since his allies and generals will never support him.
“The question is how serious Putin is. [about his threats to the West] and how serious the generals around him are. Are you ready to commit suicide for him? I doubt it, he said. I.
“He can only threaten the West with nuclear weapons, and what will his allies in India and China think about this? I don’t think they would be completely happy. What would his generals think of this? I don’t think it will be good with them. So I think it’s a bluff, but it’s a very serious bluff and if it gets caught it could be the end of the world.”
This was stated by the former Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Navy, Lord West. I yesterday that the supply of tanks to Ukraine “in a sense [the West] Remember Putin’s “bluff” about his nuclear threat. “I think the reality is that if a large number of Leopard tanks invade Ukraine – in other words, if the Ukrainians push deep into the Donbass – it will really matter to the Russians – tensions will undoubtedly increase,” he said. said.
Samantha de Bendern, a research fellow at Chatham House, said that while tensions between Russia and the West have risen since the February 2022 Russian invasion, she doesn’t think the nuclear threat has risen since yesterday’s tank announcement.
“Now I think it’s just rhetoric. Sicher, die Rhetorik wird immer verrückter: Gestern war Putin in St. Petersburg und er traf eine Gruppe von Studenten und er sagte, Deutschland sei unter amerikanischer Besatzung und der Rest Europas werde seine Souveränität zurückerlangen, aber wir brauchen wahrscheinlich ein bisschen mehr Zeit,” she said.
“Of course, such rhetoric is alarming, because then he wants to liberate Germany or France? But at the moment I see no signs that the nuclear threat has increased.”
Germany, the US and the UK are rushing to send tanks to Ukraine to make sure they make it to the front lines for Russia’s expected spring offensive. Experts have also warned that Russia may try to step up its offensive before tanks arrive in order to make strategic gains before reinforcing Ukrainian forces.
The German Defense Minister announced this morning that the Leopard 2 will arrive in late March or early April. British Defense Secretary Alex Chalk also expressed hope that the Challenger 2 tanks supplied by the UK to Ukraine would arrive by the end of March.
The US only said that it would “take time”, but that they would start the process “as soon as possible”.
Meanwhile, Russia launched a new barrage of missile strikes against Ukraine this morning, and air strike sirens wailed across the country, including the capital Kyiv. People took shelter, hid in bomb shelters and set up camps at metro stations.
Ukrainian military units shot down incoming Russian missiles, Ukrainian authorities said.