Timor-Leste National Reconstruction Congress wins fifth legislative election

The National Congress for the Reconstruction of Timor-Leste (CNRT), led by Xanana Gusmão, won Sunday’s elections in Timor-Leste with votes almost over and it remains to be determined whether he wins an outright majority.

The victory will give the party broad parliamentary representation, winning at least 31 out of 65 parliamentary seats (10 more than currently), according to preliminary national results from the Technical Secretariat for Elections (STAE).

At this point, only three municipalities, Bobonaro, Covalima and Manatuto, are left to complete the count, with counts already moving forward in three cases and CNRT leading in all.

With 92.73% of polling stations across the country counted – and the trend, which has remained virtually unchanged since the beginning of the count, continues – the NCTS leads with 263,931 votes and 41.59%, which exceeds the votes received by the three political forces that make up the current authorities.

If it does not achieve a 33-seat majority, the NTRC would have to negotiate an agreement with the Democratic Party (DP) that would give the two political forces a clear majority, although an absolute majority is mathematically possible given the votes to be counted.

The Democratic Party (DP) moved from fourth to third place in terms of votes, reversing the trend of declining party support that had persisted since the 2007 election, gaining another seat in six. There are currently 57,721 votes or 9.09%.

In second place was the Revolutionary Front for an Independent Timor-Leste (FRETILIN), which currently has 166,147 votes and 26.18%, a loss of four of its current 23 seats.

The results show that government parties are being punished, notably Prime Minister Taur Matan Ruak’s People’s Liberation Party (PLP), which is losing half of its eight seats in parliament, moving from third to fifth political power.

Taur Matan Ruak is one of the biggest losers in Sunday’s poll, with voters fleeing a political force that debuted as the third most voted in 2017 with 37,701 votes and 7.25%.

The Revolutionary Front for the Independent Timor-Leste (FRETILIN), led by Mari Alkatiri, was also fined, and the party that made executive power possible from 2020 registered its worst percentage of support ever, with a drop of about eight percentage points from the vote. which he received in anticipation of 2018.

Finally, the National Unity Kmanek Habouras Timor Oan (HUNTO) has managed to increase its support to 7.25% and is expected to retain its current five seats.

The results indicate vote leakage for the largest parties, with the total number of ballots in parties that were below the acceptable threshold (4% of valid votes) representing less than 10% of the total vote.

This value is lower than in 2017, when it reached 14%, and in 2012, when it was over 23.13%.

The CNTS won across the diaspora, in nine of the 13 already selected municipalities of Timor-Leste (it lost only to Fretilin in Baucau and Viqueque), as well as in the Ocus-Ambeno Special Administrative Region (PAEOA), where it was almost always ruled by the Fretilin leader.

There are now only five party benches left in parliament (there were eight before Sunday’s vote), and only two of the remaining 12 competing political forces have come close to the 4% barrier of valid votes: the debutant Partido Os Verdes de Timor (PVT) and the Unity and Democratic Party Development (PUDD), which took place in Parliament.

Sunday suffrage was marked by the increased participation of the Timorese diaspora, especially the young expats who registered last year, and an unprecedented number of people joined the vote.

At one polling station in the United Kingdom, the turnout was so high that those in charge of the National Electoral Commission (CNE) and STAE had to put in a second ballot box to get the votes.

Images of voting in places as diverse as Melbourne, Seoul, Lisbon or Crewe showed long lines, with election officials and diplomats citing the enthusiasm of voter participation.

The vote count was hampered by problems with the Internet, which delayed the transmission of the results of some municipalities in Dili, as well as criticism of the way the STAE published the results.

A situation that even led Timorese President José Ramos-Horta to say that he would request an international review of the election disclosure process, which, more than 30 hours after the polls closed, was still unknown.