Inflation has already reached its peak and will reach 5.6% this year in the eurozone.

The European Commission estimates that inflation has already peaked in the eurozone and European Union (EU) after a two-year low in October and is expected to reach 5.6% and 6.5% respectively and continue to decline.

“Inflation, as measured by the HICP, is estimated to [Índice harmonizado de preços no consumidor] hit a two-year low in the euro area in October and is expected to continue to decline over the forecast horizon,” the community leader points out in the autumn economic forecasts published today.

Eurozone inflation is expected to reach 5.6% in 2023, falling to 3.2% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, according to Brussels.

In the EU, global inflation is expected to fall from 6.5% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025.

While this year’s autumn forecasts are similar to those for the summer released last September, 2024 marks an improvement from forecasts of 2.9% in the eurozone and 3.2% in the EU next year.

“The sharp decline in consumer energy prices during the year was a major driver, but slowing inflation has been more widespread in recent months, with some measures of underlying inflation pressures suggesting a slowdown in price movements. In the economy, inflation is expected to continue to decline, albeit at a more moderate pace, reflecting the overall weakening of inflationary pressures on food, industrial goods and services,” he explains the context of Brussels in a document published today.

However, when it comes to energy prices, “the price response to oil, both spot and futures, has remained muted globally since the Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent conflict in the Middle East,” the organization said.

European gas prices rose again in mid-October, following a post-pandemic and post-energy crisis downward trend on fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East that could threaten gas flows.