Forecasts | PS 30.2% | AD 29.9% | IL 10.3% | Reaches 9.5% | Marta Temido with a minimal advantage in the European elections. Liberals surprise

The Socialist Party list, led by Marta Temido, will win the European Parliament elections with 30.2%, according to Intercampus forecast for morning Post/CMTV/Business magazine. The PS has a minimal lead over Sebastian Bugalho, who heads the Democratic Alliance list and is expected to win 29.9% of the vote. Despite the possible victory, the range of elected PS deputies is from 6 to 8, which will always mean a drop compared to the current 9 seats that the Socialists have in the European Parliament. The AD is in the same range of MPs as the PS, which could mean an increase in the number of elected representatives compared to the current sum of SDP and SDS-PP in the European Parliament, which is 7.

The Liberal Initiative, with 10.3%, could be one of the surprises of the evening and will elect between 1 and 3 MPs during its debut in the European Parliament. Chega, together with António Tangier Correa, should receive 9.5%, which means between 1 and 3 deputies. Livre (4.5%) will also be able to choose a deputy and make his debut in Europe.

The left bloc (4.6%) risks losing one of its two deputies in Europe or even disappearing. The same could happen with the CDU (3.8%).

The 1.3% NPA is expected to lose its current deputy.

Data sheet
Cross-campus poll for CM/CMTV/Jornal Negócios, carried out on June 9, 2024, to determine the result of the vote in the elections to the European Parliament. The universe consists of voters who participated in the electoral process, with data collected through simulated voting at the ballot box. The sample consists of 19,052 interviews collected in 20 parishes on the Portuguese mainland. The sampling error for the 95% confidence interval is plus or minus 0.71 percentage points. The forecast results come directly from a survey conducted by Intercampus.