Oil production in Angola this year fell by 1.6% to 1.12 million barrels.

British consultancy Oxford Economics predicts that Angola’s oil production will fall this year by 1.6%, to 1.12 million barrels per day, despite production cuts in recent months due to maintenance work.

“Due to the loss of production at the Dahlia field in February and March, we forecast that oil production will decrease by 1.6%, to 1.12 million barrels per day in 2023,” the commentary said on the latest data for the sector in Angola, which show a recovery in production.

In a note sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, Oxford Economics Africa also estimated a 21% decline in the price of a barrel of oil, to an average of $80 this year, leading them to forecast a decline in sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest oil producer.

“Even so, we forecast a modest slowdown in economic growth from 3.3% in 2022 to 1.9% this year due to increased resilience in non-oil activities,” the commentary said.

Oil production in Angola continued to recover in June after it fell to its lowest level in nearly two decades in March due to a workover shutdown of the Dahlia well, one of the largest in the country.

Angola managed to produce 1.12 million barrels a day in June, up 10,000 from May, but continues to produce below the limit allowed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreement, which allowed the Portuguese-speaking country to produce more than 340,000 barrels a day.

Increasing production from new and expanded oil wells, a process completed in 2021 and early 2022, helped stabilize oil production last year, but the addition of new capacity, Oxford Economics concludes, “was nearly wiped out by operational difficulties that led to production losses in old wells.”