Eight reasons why the Northern Ireland Brexit deal is still pending

As the UK and EU struggle to reach an agreement on the Northern Ireland Protocol, the focus is on removing costly red tape for goods crossing the Irish Sea, but the dispute is far more complex.

The panel of experts identified at least eight disagreements, two of which, in particular, were described as “unlikely” to be resolved without major concessions, which neither side seems willing to make.

Insiders say those main hurdles – the application of EU law in Northern Ireland and the role of European judges in overseeing protocol compliance – have been underestimated in connection with border controls, the most visible aspect of the dispute.

Meanwhile, optimism that, without media attention, the UK and the EU would enter a “tunnel” of intensive negotiations, suggesting that a solution is close, did not materialize.

Instead, No. 10 now indicated that such a move was not imminent, highlighting “substantial differences” between the positions of London and Brussels.

A government source said the idea that a breakthrough was imminent was “overblown”, adding: “People need to calm down.”

So are the chances of success in secret negotiations exaggerated while these disputes are open?

The eight biggest bottlenecks are:

• Customs. The UK wants to set up a “green streak” to avoid red tape for goods remaining in Northern Ireland, or a trusted merchant scheme for those who move to the Republic, arguing that EU proposals do not go far enough.

• Subsidies. Any subsidies affecting trade between Northern Ireland and the EU are subject to the EU subsidy regime, which the UK wants to end.

• VAT and excise duties – The UK hopes to regain control after the protocol has left Northern Ireland in line with EU rules.

• European Court of Justice (ECJ) – it oversees a protocol that allows the EU to sue the UK for not applying EU law in Northern Ireland.

• Sausages and chilled meats are all animal products that require costly paperwork and physical checks, although delays have delayed implementation.

• Pets. The protocol requires a health certificate, microchipping and rabies vaccinations for pets entering Northern Ireland from the UK, again delayed by a grace period.

• Finished products – these will need to comply with both the UK and the EU, raising concerns that companies will shun the Northern Ireland market.

• The Stormont and Belfast institutions will not participate in demanding changes to the rules still in force in Northern Ireland, which would create a “democracy deficit”, it said.

Jess Sargent, a Brexit expert at the Institute of Government (IfG), said there were deeper divisions than border controls and controls, the issue that most worries people in Northern Ireland.

“The EU has offered nothing on state aid or the Court, which have historically been red lines for the UK government and for many of the prime minister’s supporters. An agreement seems unlikely,” she explained.

“If the Prime Minister insists that the deal should include a change in the role of the European Court, then it is not clear how this can be achieved.”

The UK and the EU have announced an agreement to share trade data, but Ms Sargent noted that checks and paperwork for food, by far the most contentious areas, are excluded, saying: “Data sharing is a very minor issue.”

David Jones, former Brexit minister and vice chairman of the European Brexit Research Group (ERG), pointed to EU rules and the European Court of Justice, not border controls, as the main points of contention.

“A key goal of the UK government’s negotiations should be that EU law no longer applies in Northern Ireland and that the European Court of Justice no longer has jurisdiction over any part of the UK,” he said.

Foreign Minister James Cleverley and European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic are expected to hold a second video call in the coming days.

Her job is to change the deal Boris Johnson made at the end of 2019 to remove Theresa May’s hated “restrictor” to avoid a trade border with Ireland when the UK left the EU, but at the cost of the border moving into the EU. . Instead, the Irish Sea.

More than three years later, power-sharing in Belfast has failed due to the wrath of unions, and a bill introduced in Parliament would allow the UK to unilaterally overturn the protocol in violation of international law, the EU and most lawyers say.

The appearance of Rishi Sunak in issue #10 revived efforts to break the deadlock, as did the 25th anniversary of the peace deal on Good Friday in April – with Joe Biden’s visit as the prize for success.

EU sources said the ball is in Britain if a deal is reached, but the political danger for Mr Sunak is clear as Mr Johnson’s supporters seek to use any “sale” to revive his leadership ambitions. .

And that opportunity may vanish as negotiations drag on after local elections in May, when the expected Tory flogging will further weaken the prime minister’s position.