Violence in the north is the biggest political risk in Mozambique this year

A Fitch Solutions consultant this Sunday said Mozambique’s biggest political risk is “ongoing insurgency” in the country’s north, which is delaying oil companies’ investment in the country’s vast gas reserves.

“At Fitch Solutions, we believe that the main political risk in Mozambique this year will come from continued insurgency activity, but we also believe that the recently approved legalization of local counterinsurgency militias could marginally increase counterinsurgency fighting in the coming quarters,” they wrote. analytics.

In a policy brief on Mozambique sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, analysts at the consulting firm, owned by the same owners of Fitch Ratings, write that Mozambique has a below-average risk reduction score of 49.7 out of 100. for sub-Saharan Africa at 57.7.

Despite the underlying political risk, Fitch Solutions believes that “TotalEnergies President Patrick Pouyanne’s recent visit to Cabo Delgado, along with Republic President Filipe Nyusi, will lead to a restart of the project after the suspension of activities in 2021.”

In support of this view, analysts note that “the security situation has improved and the number of armed clashes has decreased since the participation of the troops of the Community of South African States (SDAC, English abbreviation) and Rwanda.” a country that supports Maputo and has grown the continent from 1,000 in 2021 to 2,500 at the end of last year.

“Despite improvements, attacks on civilians continue and rebel activity continues in Palma, which will continue to threaten the development of Mozambique’s gas sector,” they add.

In its risk analysis, Fitch Solutions also notes that “the large number of internally displaced persons in the north of the country will continue to pose a threat to social stability in the coming quarters” and recalls that the number of people in this unstable situation has increased. increased from 622 thousand in January 2021 to 870 thousand in June last year.

The province of Cabo Delgado has been terrorized by armed rebels since 2017, with some of the attacks blamed on the Islamic State extremist group.

More than 3,100 people have already died as a result of the conflict, according to the ACLED Conflict Registration Project, and more than 817,000 people have been displaced, according to Mozambican authorities.

Since July 2021, the advance of government forces, supported by Rwanda, later joined by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), has increased security by restoring several rebel areas, namely the village of Mosimboa da Praia, which has been occupied since August 2020.