The census is surprising and shows that Brazil has 10 million fewer inhabitants than previously thought

The new Brazilian demographic census, which began to be published this Wednesday by IBGS, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, surprised to find that Brazil has at least 10 million fewer inhabitants than previously thought. The census was carried out in 106.8 million households in all Brazilian cities during the seven months of 2022 and 2023, and then the data was calculated and analyzed for two more.

According to BIGE, Brazil’s population is currently 203.1 million inhabitants. IBGE’s own projections, based on preliminary data a few months ago, indicated that the population of Brazil was approximately 109 million, and respected demographers put forward an even higher figure, 213 million inhabitants, which is 10 million more than the census figure.

It cannot be said that the difference between estimate and reality was a blunder by these demographers or by the IBGS itself, many other people and organizations were wrong because they were based on traditionally accelerated demographic growth rates, but which slowed down in the years when this became meaningless in Brazil. Anyone who reads this Wednesday’s ranking of the world’s most populous countries, prepared by renowned World Bank technicians, will see that Brazil’s population, as assigned by the organization, is 215 million.

One explanation for the huge difference in the data is that Brazil went 12 years without a census because in 2020, when what now should have been done, Brazil’s then president Jair Bolsonaro canceled the survey due to the pandemic. , and even after the acute phase of Covid-19 had passed, he did not provide IBGS with the financial and human resources to carry out the study, which he repeatedly stated was useless. In addition, following what is happening elsewhere in the world, Brazil has experienced an accelerated aging of the population in recent years and a sharp decline in the number of children per family, which has contributed to skewed estimates.

Despite this, Brazil continues to be ranked the seventh most populous country in the world according to the World Bank, between Nigeria, which ranks sixth with 223.8 million people, and Bangladesh, which ranks eighth with a population of 172 million. . Among the largest Brazilian cities, São Paulo, with 11.4 million people, retained the top spot, while Rio de Janeiro, with its 6.2 million people, remains in second place, but Brasilia, the country’s capital, is one of the cities that experienced strong population growth, became the third largest city in Brazil with a population of 2.8 million, losing third place to El Salvador, which had a declining population and is now in fifth place with a population of 2.41 million, surpassing, in addition to Brasilia, also Fortaleza, which appears with 2.42 million people.