Markets and analysts discount Angola’s exit from OPEC

Analysts say Angola’s decision to leave OPEC is expected to have little or no impact on either the organization or the country, but there are those who point to widespread internal discontent over the cartel’s direction.

“Angola’s exit reflects the limited impact that the exits of other producers such as Indonesia, Qatar or Ecuador have had in recent years, but points to problematic developments for the club,” writes renowned energy analyst Javier Blas in Bloomberg.

“The statement, in which the Luanda government openly demonstrates its dissatisfaction with the cartel, reveals the well-known secret that several OPEC members are unhappy with the direction that the group has taken in recent years under the leadership of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia,” says Blas, pointing to Saudi Arabia’s desire keep the price of oil near $100 per barrel, which limits production in other countries.

The production cap raises a second major criticism, which the analyst says is voiced privately: Saudi Arabia does not listen to criticism from other members, firstly because it is the world’s largest producer, and secondly because ” she is trying to silence any criticism.” and force countries to be submissive.”

This line, the analyst argues, is being led by the United Arab Emirates, which produces 3 million barrels a day but could reach four or even five million daily production, and so, he concludes, “the risks to OPEC’s future are beginning.” in Luanda, but in fact they are heading on a much more dangerous route to Abu Dhabi, the capital of the Emirates.

Despite deeper analysis of OPEC’s (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) complexities, analysts agree that Angola’s exit from the organization, announced on Thursday due to limited production next year, will have little or no impact.

“Angola’s decision to leave OPEC is not entirely unexpected given discussions over its production quotas in recent months,” said the chief economist at consultancy Eaglestone.

In a conversation with Lusa, Thiago Dionisio admits that “while Angola’s decision may jeopardize some cohesion among the cartel members, it will certainly not have an impact on the prospects for crude oil production,” and recalls that “the country was already producing oil.” . very close to maximum power.”

“This will not affect supply forecasts as Angola was already producing at maximum capacity and was not constrained by quotas,” said consultant Richard Bronze of Energy Aspects, quoted by Bloomberg.

This “does not have a direct impact on the quotas or production plans of other OPEC+ countries,” he adds, referring to the group of 10 OPEC allies, including Russia, in the pricing and production strategy.

The decision, announced by the Minister of Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas Diamantino de Azevedo, came days after the visit of the Angolan President to the United States of America, which has publicly criticized OPEC policies, and in the context of northern investments. -Americans in the Lobito corridor.

It also came after months in which Angola defended increased oil production against the interests of major producers in raising world prices.

OPEC+ presented a target of 1,110 thousand barrels per day at a meeting in early December, while Angola wanted to produce an additional 70 thousand barrels.