Consultancy BMI Research forecasts that Angola’s currency will maintain its current exchange rate of 830 kwanzas to the dollar, but will depreciate to almost 900 kwanzas by the end of the year, for an average of 853 kwanzas.
“We forecast that the National Bank of Angola will keep the kwanza rate stable at around 830 per dollar during the first half of this year due to concerns about rising inflation,” analysts at BMI Research wrote.
With inflation expected to start falling again in the second half of the year, analysts at the consultancy, which is owned by the same owners of financial ratings agency Fitch Ratings, believe that “BNA will allow Angola’s national currency to gradually devalue to 900 kwanzas per dollar by the end of the year.” year, which gives an average of 853 kwanzaa per dollar.”
In an analysis of the evolution of the kwanza sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, BMI Research said it does not foresee the unofficial rate of one thousand kwanzas per dollar being exceeded.
“After a three-year moratorium, debt payments to Chinese creditors resumed in 2023, which, coupled with falling oil revenues, reduced the supply of foreign currency in Angola; as a result, the kwanza depreciated sharply from an overvalued rate of 510 kwanza per dollar in mid-May, to 825 per dollar in end of June,” analysts explain.
Since the beginning of the second half of 2023, “The National Bank of Angola has limited foreign exchange exchanges, and banks have reported difficulties in purchasing dollars beyond increasingly narrow exchange rate differentials,” they add, noting that despite creating difficulties in accessing dollars and causing delays payments, these measures allowed the kwanza to remain stable at 828–832 kwanza per dollar.”
For 2025, Angola’s currency is forecast to devalue slightly further to 927 kwanzas per dollar, with inflation falling from 17.5% in 2023 to 15% at the end of 2024 and to 12.3% at the end of next year.
Author: Lusa
Source: CM Jornal
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