ABOUT Harbor And 6th Key Municipality 2024 legislative elections. Being the second most important city in the country, it naturally belongs to the second constituency, which elects the largest number of deputies in these elections: 40. However, in the previous elections in 2022, Porto was not included in the list of key municipalities and the reason is due to the slight instability of the color of the winning party from the municipality’s point of view. In the eight elections leading up to 2022, the municipality of Porto has only changed the color of the winning party once: this happened from 2009 (the final victory of Jose Sócrates’ PS) to 2011 (the resounding victory of Passos Coelho’s PSD).
The decisive fact for the inclusion of this municipality in the current group of key municipalities was the results of the 2022 legislative elections, since the victory of the Socialists that year by a margin of just over five hundred votes was enough for António Costa to win the Invicta, creating uncertainty in the victory in this key municipality in the 2024 elections. The margin of victory was so small that, purely theoretically, if the current right-wing coalition existed in 2022, just the sum of the SDP and SDS votes would be enough to change the color of the winning side.
In the last nine legislative elections since 1995, the municipality of Porto has voted for Seven times in the party elected to form the government. Let’s see if the socialist voting trend will continue in the March 10 elections or if AD will have what it takes to regain the right to legislative victories in Porto. Both sides are clearly aware of this. Just look at the names of those who topped the list: Francisco Assis (PS) and Miguel Guimarães (AD). The limit to the progress of the Liberal Initiative and Chega should not be overlooked, which in 2024 should increase significantly in this key municipality and in this constituency.
The last legislative elections in 2022 were so devastating for the PS that it was here, in the target constituency of Porto, that the Socialists increased the number of elected deputies the most: with 17 For 19. Paradoxically, that year the PSD elected more deputies in the Porto constituency (14) than in Lisbon (13). Also noteworthy is the CDU, which achieved its third best national result here in absolute terms in 2022.
A final thought is that the Porto constituency contains two key municipalities: Porto and Vila Nova de Gaia. It is in these two key municipalities that the winning trend for the entire county will be decided.
LEGISLATIONS 2022
They were accurate 21,499 votes in the Porto district elect each deputy.
Elected deputies: PS 19, PSD 14, Illinois two, BE two, European Championship two This CDU onein total in the Porto area.
Only votes in the key municipality of Porto in PS (46,363 wishes or 35.08%) This PSD (45,833 votes or 34.68%) contributed to the election of two deputies from the Porto district.
What are the key municipalities?
These are municipalities where a large number of voters are expected (more than 70 thousand) and where in the last nine electoral acts (legislative acts) there have been significant changes in the intention to vote for the party with the greatest expression in the municipal plan. These are the municipalities that can make the largest difference in the number of MPs elected from the party that wants to win the 2024 legislative elections. In practice, the party that wins the key municipalities has a high probability of winning the constituency and therefore winning a number of decisive mandates for these elections.
Author: Francisco Penim
Source: CM Jornal
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