Cascais And 2nd key municipality legislative elections of 2024. It is the 3rd municipality with the largest number of inhabitants in the metropolitan area, the 8th richest in the country and belongs to the district of Lisbon, the constituency where the largest number of deputies are elected: they 48. When we detail the key municipalities most important for the current elections, respecting the system of proportional representation and converting them into mandates according to the Hondt method, the logical importance of the Lisbon district becomes more obvious and we can guess this from Cascais.
In the last legislative elections in 2022, the PS beat the PSD in the municipality of Cascais by a margin of just over 4800 votes, the second smallest gap among all key municipalities. Of all, it is here that P.S. less increased in percentage of votes from 2019 to 2022: 2.58%. In Cascais they voted in the same elections 109 126 voters representing 9.23% all voters in the Lisbon district.
This is another highly volatile key municipality, although different elections have seen different behavior in terms of intentions to vote for the winning party. Since 2001, the municipality has been a stronghold of the right. six consecutive municipal victories. Contrary to this logic, after the first legislative elections in 1976, the municipality of Cascais, like the municipality of Oeiras since then, had already changed the color of the winning party due to eight once. Now, in 2024, more than ever, for any party seeking to win the legislature, Cascais will be a key municipality for elections.
At the same time, the current 2024 election battle is focused on the fight against temperance. Of all the key municipalities this year, Cascais was the one that had an advantage in the 2022 legislative elections. 3rd highest percentage of abstentions: 38.87%. In the same year, of all the key municipalities of the country, Cascais was Illinois This HE’S ARRIVING had their own 3rd best votes in absolute terms.
In the last nine legislative elections since 1995, the municipality of Cascais has always voted for the party chosen to form the government.
LEGISLATIONS 2022
They were accurate 21 693 The votes in the Lisbon constituency elect each deputy.
Elected deputies: PS 21, PSD 13, Illinois This HE’S ARRIVING four every, CDU This BE two everyone and FOR FREE This POT one each for the entire district of Lisbon.
Only votes in the key municipality of Cascais PS (37 403 wishes or 34.28%) This PSD (32 580 wishes or 29.86%) contributed to the election 1 deputy for each district of Lisbon.
What are the key municipalities?
These are municipalities where a large number of voters are expected (more than 70 thousand) and where in the last nine electoral acts (legislative acts) there have been significant changes in the intention to vote for the party with the greatest expression in the municipal plan. These are the municipalities that can make the largest difference in the number of MPs elected from the party that wants to win the 2024 legislative elections. In practice, the party that wins the key municipalities has a high probability of winning the constituency and therefore winning a number of decisive mandates for these elections.
Author: Francisco Penim
Source: CM Jornal
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