NATO’s relationship with Ukraine is long-standing, but fueled by palliatives

Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO already existed at the turn of the century, and despite promises of its implementation, progress has been slow, almost always fueled by declarations of intent and temporarily limited by war.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 paved the way for Ukraine on its way to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at the start of what should have been a long decade.

Three decades later, this has not happened, despite the fact that the path has been marked since 1994, when the country became the first state of the former USSR to take part in the Partnership for Peace program with the Atlantic Alliance. Three years later, Ukraine entered into a memorandum of cooperation with NATO to take it to a new level and bring it closer to membership by creating the Ukrainian NATO Commission.

But only 11 years later, during the Bucharest summit in 2008, NATO member countries agreed to proclaim Ukraine (and G) a country that would one day become part of a military-political alliance led by the United States.

The proclamation was not accompanied by an invitation to become a candidate, let alone a chronology.

Ukraine, which was in transition from the Soviet era, still mired in corruption and dominated by a Moscow-loyal oligarchy, had to meet certain requirements before it could be considered a candidate country.

Despite a 2008 poll showing a majority in favor of NATO membership and an attempt to integrate with the presentation of the Membership Action Plan (MAP), the election of Viktor Yanukovych in 2010 led to a stalemate in Ukraine’s aspirations due to the president’s approach to Russia. Dmitry Medvedev.

NATO member states followed suit, while the ambitions of a country that once wanted to turn the page on its Soviet past and revise its security policy seemed to have waned.

But Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 raised alarm in Ukraine, which saw the illegal occupation of that part of the territory as a rehearsal for what essentially happened eight years later, during Vladimir Putin’s presidency.

NATO began, though little declared, preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the possibility of an invasion, which helped to counter the invasion that began in February 2022.

The country and its allies once again strengthened ties, and at the 2021 summit in Brussels, the heads of state and government reaffirmed their 2008 position: Ukraine will be a full member of NATO in the future.

But on February 24, 2022, Russian troops broke into Ukrainian territory and quickly reached the gates of the capital, occupying places like Bucha to force surrender. That didn’t happen, and Moscow’s attempt to undermine NATO membership aspirations has only reinforced them.

Since then, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has insisted almost every week that NATO membership should take place in 2022.

A hypothetical hasty accession would mean that the remaining member states, including Portugal, would have to join the conflict.

Since 2014, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and several leaders of the countries that are members of the organization have received a warning that integration into the organization will occur, but for this Ukraine must be at peace, so until the end of the conflict with Russia is almost impossible.

Just a week ago, Zelensky said that in the current international geopolitical context, NATO is not without Ukraine, and therefore wants at least a membership schedule, and an invitation was desirable.

But on Friday, Stoltenberg shrugged off the issue and insisted that no invitation would come from the summit. Member States, on the contrary, will reaffirm the position of “unconditional support” for Ukraine and the promise that one day Ukraine will become part of NATO.

Accession can take place not only when there are conditions for this, that is, a situation of peace, but also when it is accompanied by political reforms necessary for membership in the union.

Meanwhile, 31 allies will provide Ukraine with “palliatives” to alleviate Ukrainian frustration. The NATO-Ukraine Commission will give way to the NATO-Ukraine Council, the first meeting of which will take place in Vilnius, immediately after the end of the summit, on Wednesday.

Member States will also agree on a multi-annual support plan to ensure this “one-to-one support”.

In order to achieve membership, Ukraine will have to go through a winding path: to win the war, since NATO has already made it clear that if Russia wins, the question cannot even be raised, and in parallel to move forward in reforms in the country, which is also obliged to join the European Union.