Consulting company Oxford Economics considered this Sunday that the issue of grain supplies from Russia and Ukraine to the African continent will be one of the main topics of discussion at the Russia-Africa summit next Thursday and Friday.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin could make a gesture of goodwill regarding food aid to the Horn of Africa region and calm the nerves of African leaders, as well as guarantees of Russian food exports to countries such as Egypt or Algeria,” analysts write in a commentary on the future Russia-Africa summit scheduled for July 27 and 28 in St. Petersburg.
“We can expect food prices to be one of the main topics of discussion,” analysts said in a note sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, which came days after the suspension of the Black Sea grain export agreement.
“Our analysis shows that the Black Sea Grain Initiative has played a less important role in the food supply of African countries than the rest of the world,” analysts say, stressing, however, that “a prolonged suspension of this agreement could disrupt the financial markets of raw materials and increase prices”, which will affect even more African countries struggling with a general increase in inflation in a context when the state of public finances in most countries does not allow for large compensatory measures for the population.
“Although inflation is slowing down in most African countries, we really don’t see deflation, that is, falling prices, so families are still under pressure due to the rising cost of living crisis, so another rise in inflation will only worsen the situation of families, which is already worse than a few years ago,” analysts at Oxford Economics write.
Added to this is an increase in public debt and public financing costs, “which means that African countries have less fiscal space to increase social support for families this time,” the consultant concludes.
On Monday, Russia announced that it was suspending an agreement on the export of grain through the Black Sea from Ukrainian ports, arguing that the obligations taken on the Russian side were not fulfilled.
A number of countries and international organizations, including the United Nations and the European Union (EU), condemned Moscow’s decision, lamenting Russia’s backtracking in the face of an extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and warning of grave consequences for countries struggling to access food.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative, agreed a year ago by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations, has enabled the export of almost 33 million tons of food from three ports in southern Ukraine, which is critical to lowering world prices and food security in the most vulnerable countries.
The Russian authorities have signaled that they will return to the protocol only if their conditions are met, namely the trade in their own agricultural products, which, they emphasize, is hindered by Western sanctions.
The Russian military offensive into Ukraine, launched on February 24 last year, plunged Europe into the most serious security crisis since World War II (1939-1945).
Author: Portuguese
Source: CM Jornal
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