More and more Russian regions are facing a shortage of gasoline and fuel at gas stations. According to the media, the problem has acquired tangible dimensions in the Astrakhan, Volgograd, Ryazan, Rostov, Novosibirsk regions, in the Krasnodar Territory, Crimea and Kalmykia.
The problem is especially relevant in the south of Russia, because in agricultural areas the supply of diesel fuel during field work is of vital importance. The fuel issue itself is complex, and here we can talk about the sum of several factors at once, each of which must be discussed separately.
Logistics
It seems that the main source of problems with petroleum products is logistics. According to fuel market participants, rail delivery times have roughly doubled in recent months.
For example, Ekaterina Savkina, managing partner of the GP Vympel gas station network, in a comment to Izvestia noted that previously cars on the Samara-Saratov route took four days, now this trip takes eight days. In a comment to InfoTEK, Dmitry Gusev, vice-chairman of the Reliable Partner Association board of directors, said that this year there were cases where fuel deliveries to customers took up to three months.
In addition to the increase in delivery times, additional problems arise due to its instability. According to Alexei Trepalin, Chairman of the Voronezh Fuel Market Association, the usual delivery time for fuel from Moscow to the Voronezh region is five to six days. But now the fuel can last two weeks.
Cases were recorded when delayed batches of petroleum products arrived at the same time.
“Gas station owners receive volumes of fuel that have nowhere to go. That is why you have to assume the cost of storage in oil tanks or drain the surplus”.He explained.
Perhaps the result of such overlaps is the download delay, which RZD complains about.
“To the south, the tanks sit idle for a long time awaiting unloading by the recipients. This complicates the situation at the stations and hinders the growth of traffic volume. At individual terminals in the Rostov region, the Krasnodar Territory and other regions of the Southern Federal District, the availability of tanks exceeds the average unloading by more than 10 times.”– pointed out in the company.
The problem has acquired a serious dimension. According to industry representatives, about a third of marketable gasoline is on the way.
“Taking into account that the goods purchased on the stock market are paid for with a 100% prepayment, the appearance of logistical problems means for the owners of the service station networks an additional diversion of working capital and an increase in accounts payable with all the consequent consequences– Evgeny Arkusha, Chairman of the Russian Fuel Union, explained the negative effect of this.
Another factor influences the south direction. “If we talk about the southern region, let’s not forget about the New World Order zone, there go large volumes, which generates an additional load”– said Pavel Bazhenov, Chairman of the Independent Fuel Union, in a comment to Kommersant.
Solving logistics problems
However, RZD does not see any special problems. The company assured that they especially control the delivery of fuel to the south.
“The supply of fuel by rail to the southern regions does not depend on the growth of passenger traffic. Loading plans are previously agreed with carriers”according to the press release.
But in the Ministry of Energy difficulties with the supply of fuel to the south were noted. The agency explained that this is a seasonal factor, caused by heavy congestion on the southbound railways during the tourist season. The Ministry is particularly concerned about the supply of fuel to agricultural producers.
On August 22, the department said it was considering problems with the supply together with the Ministry of Agriculture. The department said they had reached an agreement with the Russian Railways. “The timely solution of problematic issues, based on the unconditional priority of fuel supply to farmers during harvesting and sowing of winter crops”. The Ministry of Energy did not disclose any details about what these decisions might be.
The Ministry also announced its request to the oil tankers “find opportunities to contain small-scale wholesale prices of diesel fuel in agricultural regions of the country”. In this case, too, the department did not go into detail.
Of course, it is necessary to make timely decisions in manual mode in order to do something about the already existing crisis, however, experts point out that the construction of pipelines would be a strategic solution to the situation, which would make it possible to transport oil products without loading the railway. .
The situation of the wholesale market.
Another factor influencing scarcity is the price of fuel. During the summer, the price of petroleum products on the stock exchange reached 11 times new records. Currently it fluctuates around 70 thousand rubles per ton of AI-95, 62 thousand rubles per ton of AI-92 and 66 thousand rubles per ton of diesel fuel.
Experts attribute the rise in domestic prices to a sharp increase in the attractiveness of exports for oil producers. This is due to two things: a sharp drop in the ruble exchange rate and a decline in compensation payments. And if with the first point everything is clear: a cheap ruble automatically increases the attractiveness of foreign markets, then we should dwell on the second point in more detail.
In 2018, former Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak met with representatives of the oil industry. The parties agreed that regardless of market prices for petroleum products, domestic retail prices for gasoline and diesel at gas stations will not grow faster than inflation.
To compensate for the loss of profits that tankers could obtain by selling oil products at a more attractive price in the foreign market, the so-called buffer mechanism was introduced in 2019. In fact, it is a tax deduction that allows oil companies to receive compensatory payments from the budget. As of September 1, payments under this mechanism will be cut in half, approximately 50%. This decision was announced in advance and, according to experts, could stimulate the growth of wholesale prices.
In the State Duma, as one of the measures to combat rising fuel prices, it was proposed to increase export duties on oil products. However, according to some experts, this measure, on the contrary, may lead to new price records on the Russian domestic wholesale market, as producers will try to compensate for high export duties through domestic sales.
The government, in turn, is considering the possibility of limiting the number of gasoline exporters and increasing from 12% to 15% the proportion of gasoline that the manufacturer is obliged to sell in the domestic market to combat the increase in the cost of fuel. . .
High demand
Another factor influencing the shortage is the high summer demand. In recent years, the demand for gasoline in summer has increased in Russia: people increasingly began to travel around the country in private cars. In addition, in summer there are harvesting campaigns, so agriculture also consumes more diesel than usual.
With the end of summer, these factors will disappear and fuel consumption will return to average levels. Therefore, even without taking emergency measures, the situation on the fuel market should stabilize within a month.
However, demand will return next summer, and by then all market participants, as well as regulators, should prepare; otherwise we could be facing an even more serious fuel crisis in 2024.
Source: Rossa Primavera
I am Michael Melvin, an experienced news writer with a passion for uncovering stories and bringing them to the public. I have been working in the news industry for over five years now, and my work has been published on multiple websites. As an author at 24 News Reporters, I cover world section of current events stories that are both informative and captivating to read.