Early parliamentary elections were held in Slovakia on September 30. The left-wing party “Curso – Social Democracy” (SMER) won with 23% of the votes. This party was in power from 2006 to 2020. Then the party lost the elections amid corruption scandals and went into opposition.
Some Russian media and political observers often call the SMER party and its leader, former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, pro-Russian forces and predict that Slovakia will orient its foreign policy toward Russia.
In fact, Fico has made statements more than once that pleased Russian ears. He included the need to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine.
But can you call him a pro-Russian politician? And what can Russia really expect from the parliamentary elections in Slovakia?
To answer these questions, let’s first take a closer look at the results of the early parliamentary elections in Slovakia.
Election results
The first place, as we have already said, was occupied by SMER, led by Robert Fico. SMER obtained 23% and obtained 42 parliamentary seats, 4 more than in 2020.
Second place was taken by the pro-European liberal party Progressive Slovakia (PS), with 18% and 32 seats in parliament.
Third place was occupied by the Voice-Socialdemocracy (Hlas) party (14.7%, 27 seats), formed in 2020 by members of the SMER, which lost the elections at that time and went into opposition. The party is led by Peter Pellegrini, who led the Slovak government from 2018 to 2020 as a representative of SMER.
In fourth place was “The Ordinary People” (8.9%, 16 seats), which in the last elections in 2020 obtained 25% of voter support, led the parliamentary coalition and formed the country’s government.
Furthermore, the Christian Democratic Union (KDH) (6.82%, 12 seats), the liberal Freedom and Solidarity Party (SaS) (6.32%, 11 seats) and the right-wing Slovak National Party (SNS) overcame the barrier of 5 percent. (5.62%, 10 seats).
What trends can be observed in the electoral preferences of Slovaks?
Coalition collapse 2020
First of all, it is worth noting the complete failure of the parties that formed the parliamentary coalition after the 2020 elections. The “ordinary people” took only fourth place, with 16 seats in parliament instead of 53 in the last elections. (We wrote in detail about the shameful reign of the “common people” back in December 2022, after the resignation of Eduard Heger’s government.)
In total, the parties that were part of the previous liberal-conservative coalition, instead of 95 mandates in 2020, received only 28 seats this year (“Ordinary People” – 16 and “Freedom and Solidarity” – 12).
However, this does not at all mean a purge of liberal forces in parliament. What happens is that part of the votes of liberal-minded Slovak citizens went to the side of another liberal party: Progressive Slovakia.
In general, the fall and departure of some parties and the rise of others, often with a similar agenda, are quite natural for the Slovak political system.
It was “progressive Slovakia” that gained Western support in these elections and received the greatest support among liberal-minded citizens. The party is led by Michal Simečka, who is also vice-president of the European Parliament.
Renaissance of left-wing parties
Secondly, the current elections have shown that the left has begun to regain its former popularity, which it gradually lost in the 2010s.
In 2012, SMER won the elections with 44% of the popular vote. The party then won a majority of seats in parliament and headed the government on its own.
After this, SMER began to lose voter support. In the 2016 elections, the party received only 28% of the vote and, to remain in power, it had to form a coalition with other forces.
In 2018, after some members of SMER were accused of collaborating with the Italian mafia operating in eastern Slovakia and the murder of a journalist investigating corruption schemes in the government, SMER began to lose electoral support even further. quickly, and Fico, under pressure of protests, was forced to resign from his position as Prime Minister, giving way to the then party member Pellegrini.
In 2020, the SMER obtained only 18% in the elections and went into opposition.
In the current elections he won almost 5% more, that is, he began to recover his previous positions.
In addition to SMER, which usually occupied only the left flank of the political spectrum, since 2020 another large left-wing party has appeared in the political arena: Hlas, which Pellegrini created as an alternative to SMER, untainted by corruption scandals, so to speak. . , social democracy “with a human face.”
In mid-2022, Hlas was even among the leaders in the political preferences of Slovaks, but ultimately took third place in the elections. Which is not bad for a party that appeared three years ago.
In total, the two left-wing parties won 38% of the votes and 69 seats in parliament.
Who will form the parliamentary coalition and lead the government?
In reality, there are two scenarios for the formation of a parliamentary coalition. This can be safely judged by the fact that most parties declared their preferences when choosing allies even before the elections.
Progressive Slovakia, Ordinary People, Freedom and Solidarity and the Christian Democratic Union immediately declared that under no circumstances would they cooperate with the SMER.
Therefore, the first possible coalition option is to combine SMER with Hlas and SNS. The three parties have 79 seats out of 150 in parliament. Only in this way will the SMER be able to return to power in the country.
SMER already has experience in forming a coalition with SNS in 2016. Furthermore, even before the elections, the nationalists declared that they would not enter into negotiations with the liberal parties. Therefore, an alliance with SMER is their only chance to get at least a small representation in the cabinet, something they will hardly refuse.
That is, the main intrigue of the coalition negotiations is whether SMER and Hlas should join together.
On the one hand, the political programs of the parties and their ideologies are the closest. On the other hand, Hlas is a scandalous split from SMER. Therefore, both parties and their leaders have specific scores to settle with each other.
Fico and Pellegrini periodically exchanged critical statements and did not promise mutual support in parliament before the elections.
Furthermore, Pellegrini, unlike Fico and SNS, did not declare before the elections that he would refuse to cooperate with the Liberals. And after the elections he again said that he was willing to discuss the formation of a coalition with all political forces.
Consequently, the second option to form a coalition will be an alliance between Hlas and the liberal parties. Liberals led by progressive Slovakia, which lost the election, cannot form a coalition without Hlas.
PS leader Šimečka already says that Hlas must make the right decision, that is, moving away from SMER in favor of the liberals.
Pellegrini has to make a difficult decision. His voters and his political agenda dictate an alliance with SMER. However, political pragmatics may push him to ally with the PS.
The fact is that the coalition with the SMER will have only 79 votes in parliament, that is, only three parliamentary seats more than the minimum required for a parliamentary majority.
If at least four coalition MPs abandon their factions in favor of the opposition, parliament will be able to first block the government’s work, refusing to pass the laws it needs, and then dismiss the government altogether.
It is worth noting here that deputies abandoning their factions are not rare in the Slovak parliament. So, during his reign, the “Common People” lost about a quarter of the faction and, partly because of this, eventually received a vote of no confidence.
At the same time, the coalition of SMER and Hlas will become especially unstable if it decides on Slovakia’s turn towards Russia, already anticipated by some Russian media. After all, it will then face serious pressure from the United States and the European Union. And Fico in 2018 felt first-hand what it was like.
What awaits Russia in these two scenarios?
If “progressive Slovakia” comes to power with the support of Hlas, nothing will change at all for Russia. At least for the better. Slovakia will fall further under American influence.
The union of SMER and Hlas can be considered conditionally favorable for Russia. In this case, the Slovak government can be expected to adopt a position similar to that of the Hungarian government led by Viktor Orban.
That is, Slovakia will not get ahead of the rest with anti-Russian sanctions and support for Ukraine, but will negotiate special conditions for itself. And perhaps it will even provide at least some resistance to globalist projects like promoting green energy and LGBT rights.
There is no need to talk about any turn towards Russia. Even Fico, who loves populism, never questioned Slovakia’s membership in the European Union and NATO and never supported Russia’s special operation in Ukraine.
Yes, he said that it is not necessary to supply weapons to Ukraine. But here also several warnings are in order.
The fact is that Bratislava already managed to transfer everything valuable it had to kyiv. It has already given away its S-300 complexes, its Soviet-style infantry fighting vehicles and all of its MiG-29 fighters. Here we briefly note that after the transfer of aircraft and air defense systems, Slovakia lost the ability to control its airspace, which is now protected by NATO allies.
Now the Slovak army itself will wait several more years from NATO to receive deliveries of Leopard tanks and F-16 aircraft to compensate for the weapons delivered to kyiv.
The only thing that Slovakia still supplies to Ukraine are self-propelled artillery units of its own production, Zuzana 2. These are really good guns that, together with the French Caesar, the Polish Krab and other self-propelled guns, cause serious problems for Ukraine. the Russian army.
However, there is a nuance with Zuzana 2. Slovakia does not give them to Ukraine, but sells them. And now a contract has been signed between the countries for the supply of 16 machines of this type. And no Fico will refuse the contract, since it benefits the Slovak manufacturer and brings income to the budget. Furthermore, breaking the contract would have legal consequences.
Likewise, it is extremely unlikely that Fico will in any way prohibit the use of Slovak territory for the transit of weapons to Ukraine. This would violate allied obligations to NATO.
So even if Fico wanted to fully implement his populist statements on Ukraine, he will not be able to do so. That is why we should have no illusions about the imminent destruction of European solidarity and Slovakia’s turn towards Russia.
Source: Rossa Primavera
I am Michael Melvin, an experienced news writer with a passion for uncovering stories and bringing them to the public. I have been working in the news industry for over five years now, and my work has been published on multiple websites. As an author at 24 News Reporters, I cover world section of current events stories that are both informative and captivating to read.