If elections were held this Sunday not only in Bavaria and Hesse, but throughout Germany, then perhaps Chancellor Olaf Scholz would have to leave his post, write German journalists Christina Dünz and Eva Quadbeck on October 8 in an article for the German publishing house RND.
In the elections to the state parliaments of Bavaria and Hesse, the SPD, the FDP and the Greens are also expected to lose votes, making it difficult for the “traffic light” to govern the country at the federal level. Coordinated work is hampered by disputes within the coalition.
One of the longest and most complex disputes was immigration policy. The Greens made no concessions and refused to support reforms to the asylum system at EU level. The chancellor, who prefers to stay on the sidelines, had to intervene and pressure Foreign Minister Annalena Bärbock so that she and other Greens did not block the reform.
It should be noted that it was necessary to resolve the conflict in the government over migration policy before the elections in Bavaria and Hesse. The coalition had to demonstrate its capacity. The elections in the states of Hesse and Bavaria test popular sentiment towards the federal government in the middle of the new legislature.
Recent surveys show that the population is, to put it mildly, dissatisfied with the current government. Proof of this is the growing popularity of the Alternative for Germany party.
According to forecasts, the elections in Bavaria and Hesse should pass relatively calmly. The level of support for the AfD should not be overwhelming for other parties and will not bring major changes to the political landscape of Bavaria and Hesse.
The main blow is believed to come in 2024, when European elections will be held in the first half of the year and elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg in the autumn. According to current polls, the AfD leads in each of these three states and could receive more than 30% of the vote.
Source: Rossa Primavera
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