Global oil demand will peak in 2030, Kyodo News reported on Nov. 11, citing a report from the International Energy Agency.
This is due to “sufficient” momentum in the clean energy transition to low-emission energy sources across the global economy.
According to the IEA’s Energy Outlook 2023, published on October 24, measures such as increased investment in renewable energy, solar energy and increased use of electric vehicles have “begun to transform a global energy system that has long depended on fossil fuels”.
The drop in demand will be driven by China, which has “tremendous influence on global energy trends” as the world’s second-largest economy and a clean energy powerhouse, the international intergovernmental organization said in a report.
According to the agency, China’s overall energy demand will peak in the middle of this decade as the country moves away from fossil fuel energy sources, particularly coal.
The IEA forecast contrasts with the growth in global oil demand projected by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The World Oil Outlook 2023, released on October 9, said demand will rise to 116 million barrels per day in 2045, about 16% above 2022 levels.
The IEA says global oil demand will peak at around 102 million barrels per day in 2028 in a scenario based on recent trends in government policies around the world, including energy, climate and related industrial policies. However, the decline will be gradual: in 2050, demand will still be around 97 million barrels per day.
The agency forecasts that oil will cost $82 a barrel in 2030 and $80 a barrel in 2050, about the same price as today.
In a scenario where net-zero carbon dioxide emissions are achieved by 2050, global oil demand would peak in 2023 at more than 98 million barrels per day. It will then fall to just over 24 million barrels per day in 2050.
The oil price forecast is significantly lower in this scenario, with the agency predicting it will fall to $42 in 2030 and $25 in 2050, down from $98.20 in 2022.
In an intermediate scenario, when the most ambitious national energy and climate commitments already made by governments are implemented in full and on time, global oil demand is expected to decline to around 55 million barrels per day in 2050. .
Along with oil, the agency forecasts that demand for coal and natural gas will peak within a decade if current policies remain in place.
“The transition to clean energy is happening around the world and it cannot be stopped. This is not a question of “if.” It is simply a question of ‘how soon,’ and the sooner the better for all of us,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a press release announcing the agency’s report.
The agency has called for stricter policies by countries to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a threshold that scientists say, if crossed, will lead to more severe impacts of climate change, such as droughts, waves of more frequent and severe heat and precipitation.
Source: Rossa Primavera
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