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Orban versus the European Union: what will resistance to migration mean for Hungary?

Orban versus the European Union: what will resistance to migration mean for Hungary?

After the outbreak of the war between Israel and Palestine, the already complex issues of migration policy and ensuring anti-terrorist security in the European Union intensified. The immigration package, proposed before October, is now even more difficult to promote than before. Some member countries of the alliance simply do not want to accept refugees on their territory, among whom terrorists are hiding.

The essence of the proposal is to introduce mandatory quotas to accommodate a specific number of immigrants. Furthermore, EU countries will not be able to reject the obligations imposed on them by Brussels, since in this case the “take or pay” system, tried for a long time, is excluded.

Hungary and Poland came out harshly against the migration package, literally disrupting the EU summit in the summer of 2023. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called the document “rape” and refused to accept it. The Polish authorities did the same. They referred to the fact that such a migration policy violates the national interests of states and only aggravates the security threat.

Also read: Hungary has decided to get rid of immigrants.

Hungary has been implementing a migration policy for several years that challenges Brussels. Why doesn’t Orban want to join the pan-European trend and what will this mean for his country? IA Krasnaya Vesna I learned from political scientist, candidate of historical sciences and associate professor of the Russian State Humanitarian University (RGGU), Vadim Trukhachev.

IA Krasnaya Vesna: Hungary has planted a bone in Brussels’ throat with its disagreement when it comes to accepting the new immigration package, which involves mandatory quotas for foreigners. Poland also joined. Could you tell us the reasons for this migration policy in Budapest: why is Orban so stubborn now, in 2023?

Vadim Trukhachev: It did not stop in 2023, but much earlier: in 2015, during Europe’s largest migration crisis. Hungary is a national state, which in principle does not imply the presence of a large number of foreigners. And even more so those who differ significantly from Hungarians in religion and culture.

Hungary has nothing prepared to receive immigrants. There is no money for their support and no place to live. There are no police or intelligence services that can clearly separate extremists from others. There are no teachers who can teach visitors the Hungarian language.

However, the rules of EU membership oblige Hungary to comply with its decisions, including those regarding migration. And by refusing to accept migrants, Orban is violating the commitments his country made when joining the EU.

IA Krasnaya Vesna: The Hungarian Ministry of the Interior has decided to toughen the law on immigrants living in the country. How do you think this will affect the lives of Hungarians? In the field of education, for example, there is a serious shortage of personnel. And after the expulsion of guest workers, the positions of public transport drivers, restaurant employees, etc. They will also be “naked.”

Vadim Trukhachev: Here the choice is difficult: internal inconveniences or security problems. Most Hungarians choose the latter and are clearly willing to endure the inconvenience to feel safe.

Islamist terrorist attacks elsewhere in Europe have increased suspicions toward visitors from the Middle East. And Ukrainians are viewed with suspicion due to the oppression of the Hungarians of Transcarpathia. The gypsies are a separate matter, their Magyars (the historical name of the Hungarians, approx. IA Krasnaya Vesna) are not liked either.

Let’s be clear: there are many gypsies living in Hungary. According to official statistics, its share in the total population of the country reaches 3.16%, but according to other data, up to 8-10%. It is the largest ethnic minority community in Hungary.

IA Krasnaya Vesna: How is Fidesz going to play the migration policy card from a foreign policy perspective? Will other Eastern European countries follow Hungary’s example?

Vadim Trukhachev: Poland is already following the same path. But the Czech Republic, richer, prefers to pay: it pays fines not to accept immigrants. Hungary’s point of view is shared by all former socialist countries, and also by several other countries.

What can we say if even Holland and Sweden, which for years have been models of multicultural policies, have seriously adjusted immigration measures?

IA Krasnaya Vesna: The EU called Hungary a growing threat. How does this correspond to reality? Will Orban give up his claim on Brussels if the unfreezing of European Union funds appeals to him?

Vadim Trukhachev: Will renounce his claims if Hungary is allowed to annex southwestern Transcarpathia, inhabited by Hungarians. And they will stop imposing taxes on immigrants from the countries of the Middle East and Africa. But the European Union is not yet ready for this, so the dispute will continue. But Hungary itself will not leave the EU. She really doesn’t want to lose money to Brussels.

Also read: Orban threatened to block EU aid to Ukraine if there is no summit

IA Krasnaya Vesna: Could a situation arise where Hungary and Orban personally find themselves somewhat isolated from the EU? How are you going to continue with your line so as not to end up being an outsider?

Vadim Trukhachev: They were already at it. And to maintain his line, Orban is looking for support outside the EU. Mainly in China. To a lesser extent, in Russia and Türkiye.

Recall that the ruling Fidesz party announced a national poll to present the opinion of the Hungarian people to Brussels as an argument in a dispute over key European Union issues. The questionnaire included 11 questions about Ukraine’s financing, migration policy, and the promotion of LGBT ideology in educational institutions.

Source: Rossa Primavera

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