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Will Azerbaijan give up running back Zangezur?

Will Azerbaijan give up running back Zangezur?

In Soviet times, most of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic were connected by the railway and the Baku-Julfa highway. Both roads ran along the northern bank of the Araks River, along the border between Armenia and Iran. After the aggravation of relations between the republics and the Karabakh war in 1991-1994, part of the highway was destroyed and the road to the Nakhichevan Republic was cut off.

The issue of unblocking transport communications passing through the territory of Armenia has been debated in the political sphere of the Caucasus countries since the mid-90s. Azerbaijan has long been trying to restore the land highway connecting it with Nakhichevan and Turkey .

The next round of escalation of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan occurred in the fall of 2020. The events called the 44-day war led to Armenia having to make several territorial concessions in relation to Azerbaijan. As a result, seven regions that were part of the Azerbaijan SSR during Soviet times, but remained under the control of Nagorno-Karabakh after the first Karabakh War, passed to Azerbaijan.

Thanks to the efforts of Russian diplomats, the 44-day war was ended by a tripartite agreement signed by the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The most problematic today is the ninth paragraph of this agreement, which says:

“All economic and transport connections in the region will be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia ensures the security of transport communications between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic to organize unhindered movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. Control of transport communications is carried out by the Border Service of the FSB of Russia.

By agreement of the Parties, the construction of new transport communications connecting the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with the western regions of Azerbaijan will be ensured.”

Armenia and Azerbaijan interpreted this point differently. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev argued that Yerevan is obliged to provide the “Zangezur Corridor” for communication between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan.

According to the idea of ​​the Azerbaijani side, the Zangezur corridor (in Armenia it is called Meghri or Syunik) should also run along the Armenia-Iran border along the northern bank of the Araks River.

The Azerbaijani authorities pushed the issue of the extraterritoriality of this section of the route, suggesting a lack of control over the corridor by the Armenian authorities. Baku talks about the need to return to this region Azerbaijanis who previously lived there to provide services in the Zangezur corridor.

On April 20, 2021 Aliyev stated: “As I said before and during the war, you must voluntarily leave our land, otherwise we will forcibly evict you. And so it happened. The fate of the Zangezur corridor will be the same.

Our main rival is time. Because building railways and roads takes time. Therefore, all forces have been mobilized to implement this project.

Therefore, the Azerbaijani people will return to Zangezur, which was taken from us 101 years ago.”

Following the annexation of new territories in 2020, road construction began in the Zangilan and Jebrail regions, which should become part of the Zangezur corridor. The length of the Azerbaijan road section is 123.8 km. At the beginning of 2023, the laying and construction of roads was 70% complete.

On August 17, 2021, Aliyev ordered the creation of 14 new districts, including the name “Eastern Zangezur.” Regarding western Zangezur, Aliyev stated:

“Western Zangezur is now under Armenian control. But as a result of the creation of the Zangezur corridor, we, of course, will use it and return our citizens to the lands of their ancestors. There are such plans and this is natural. Because our citizens were forcibly expelled from the territory of present-day Armenia, not only from Zangezur, but also from the Goychi Mahal (which borders these places) and have every right to live in the land of their ancestors. We leave this for later.”

The Armenian authorities have repeatedly responded to such statements by Aliyev that the term “Zangezur Corridor” is not mentioned in the trilateral agreement, especially in the format that Azerbaijan speaks about.

On November 21, 2021, Pashinyan stated: “Azerbaijan continues its policy of aggression against Armenia and this should be a topic of discussion in international structures, because Azerbaijan is trying, so to speak, to impose conditions with the right of the winner, but this is unacceptable. What does Zangezur Corridor or Eastern Zangezur mean? Who comes up with these expressions? “We have declared and continue to declare that there will be no negotiations on the corridors.”

In fact, the agreement does not literally define the Zangezur corridor in the sense that Azerbaijan promotes.

However, the agreement talks about unblocking all economic transport and communications in the region and guaranteeing access between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic by the end of 2023. So far Armenia has not implemented a single transport connection between Azerbaijan and its exclave.

It turns out that Armenia, under the leadership of Pashinyan, is formally sabotaging the implementation of paragraph 9 of the agreement, which it itself signed.

At the same time, Armenia has a different view on the implementation of this clause of the agreement. Yerevan proposed its own project – the “Crossroads of Armenia”, which, after the military escalation on September 19, 2023, began to be pathetically called the “Crossroads of the World”.

According to this project, Armenia needs to restore the north-south railway connection, lost in the 90s, and build three new communication routes between the east and west of the country. According to Pashinyan, the development of regional communications, economy and interdependence will ensure Armenia’s security.

Pashinyan is now actively promoting this project on international platforms: in Georgia, India, the EU and the United States. With such a loud name, Pashinyan apparently seeks to attract investors to the country and soften the effect of the lost war.

At the end of September 2023, negotiations took place between Iran and Azerbaijan. Tehran told Baku that it will not tolerate changes to the region’s territorial borders. It was meant that Iran would not allow the Syunik region of Armenia to be transferred to Azerbaijan. As a result of the negotiations, the parties made a decision to create transport communications along the southern side of the Araks River through the territory of Iran.

On October 25, the assistant to the president of Azerbaijan, Hajiyev, said that the Zangezur corridor project had lost relevance: “We can do it with Iran instead.”

Already on October 6, the construction of the Agband automobile bridge over the Araks River began to ensure communication between Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Republic through the territory of Iran.

Despite the agreement on the route through Iran, it is doubtful that Azerbaijan will bury the Zangezur corridor idea. Azerbaijan has been plotting a plan to seize the Syunik region for years, and all recent statements towards Armenia have been made with this logic. A sharp “change” of the political vector for the development of communications with Iran could be a deceptive maneuver to lull the vigilance of Armenia and Iran.

Using the highway that runs through the territory of Iran, Azerbaijan achieves several things at once: a land connection now with Nakhichevan; negotiate more advantageous positions in negotiations on a peace treaty with Armenia (when it is not a “crossroads of the world”); observation and reconnaissance of the opposite bank of the river, the Syunik region of Armenia, and search for opportunities for a new attack in order to seize the territory.

So far, everything favors Baku, so the implementation of the Zangezur corridor for Azerbaijan is probably just a matter of time.

Source: Rossa Primavera

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